#美联储政策与货币政策 Seeing Trump once again wielding a big stick against Powell, my thoughts inevitably drift back to the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, Bernanke stood firm and operated independently, despite heavy criticism, and the Federal Reserve's firewall ultimately protected the entire system. Today, the script is playing out again—political forces attempting to erode the independence of the central bank, which in my over twenty years of investing experience is indeed a rare and dangerous signal.

Trump's "shadow chairman" mechanism, public criticism of FOMC members, and even considering suing Powell are all breaking a long-standing unwritten rule. History has shown us that whenever political interference in monetary policy occurs, market pricing mechanisms fail. The stagflation of the 1970s serves as a warning—when the central bank is forced to obey political cycles rather than economic cycles, inflation expectations spiral upward.

The most dangerous issue now is not whether Powell will be dismissed, but the erosion of market confidence in the Federal Reserve's policy. Once investors begin to doubt the coherence and scientific basis of policy, capital flows will become extremely unstable. We are already seeing signs of this—internal Fed discussions are becoming "selectively silent," which in itself reflects the erosion of institutional resilience.

The announcement of the new chairperson in January next year could become a critical turning point. If the selection process itself becomes politicized, we must prepare for an even more uncertain monetary policy environment. Such uncertainty often drives up volatility, and volatility is precisely the most indiscriminate killer.