ANZ Bank provides the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule: a 25 basis point cut in March and June, with the annual interest rate dropping to 3%

ANZ Bank forecasts that the Federal Reserve’s rate cut cycle will not be paused for an extended period. Brian Martin, Head of G3 Economics Research at the bank, stated that although the Fed may hold rates steady in January, the market’s view of a long-term pause in rate cuts lacks reasonable basis. He provided a clear timetable for rate cuts: a 25 basis point reduction in March, another 25 basis points in June, with the federal funds target rate falling to 3%-3.25% by mid-year. The key support behind this forecast is the expectation that US inflation will gradually ease by 2026.

New signals for the rate cut cycle

Specific timetable for rate cuts

ANZ Bank’s rate cut expectations are as follows:

Why this forecast is crucial

Compared to the market’s pessimistic view that the “rate cut cycle will be long paused,” ANZ Bank’s perspective represents an alternative mainstream outlook. The underlying logic is:

• US inflation is gradually easing, which is a prerequisite for rate cuts
• Holding steady in January does not mean the cycle is over but rather that conditions are being prepared for subsequent cuts
• The two rate cuts in March and June are relatively certain expectations

This view breaks the market’s concern that the “rate cut cycle may be long stalled,” providing a relatively clear direction for liquidity expectations.

Potential impact on the crypto market

From a liquidity perspective, this outlook has several implications for the crypto market:

• Continued rate cut cycle suggests US dollar liquidity will gradually loosen
• Easing inflation supports the sustainability of rate cuts, rather than a one-off policy adjustment
• The relatively moderate rate cut path from January to mid-year gives the market room to adapt

It is worth noting that this expectation also depends on actual US inflation data. If inflation does not ease as expected, the timetable for rate cuts may be delayed.

Summary

ANZ Bank’s forecast offers a relatively optimistic but logically grounded expectation for the rate cut cycle. The key point is that the Federal Reserve will not pause rate cuts long-term but will gradually lower rates at a moderate pace supported by easing inflation. For the crypto market, this means liquidity conditions are expected to improve gradually in the first half of 2026. Future focus should be on the actual US inflation data and whether the Fed will follow this timetable.