Wintermute: Whether the market can recover in 2026 depends on three major factors, and the market urgently needs a surge of enthusiasm.

GateUser-6433627c · 2026-01-14T05:35:06+00:00

Wintermute's analysis indicates that the 2025 Bitcoin and altcoin cycles are weak, and the market may face structural changes. The crypto market rebound depends on ETF expansion, major asset rallies, and retail investor return. Currently, liquidity is concentrated in a few major coins, altcoin rally cycles are shortening, and retail enthusiasm for crypto is waning.

GateUser-6433627c

2026-01-14 05:35:06

Abstract generation in progress

On January 14, the crypto market maker Wintermute analyzed in its digital asset OTC trading market review: The traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin performed weakly in 2025, and the altcoin cycle nearly disappeared. This is not a temporary adjustment but a structural change. Therefore, for the crypto market to truly rebound strongly in 2026, it heavily depends on three key outcomes, with at least one of them occurring: ETFs and Digital Asset Custody (DAT) companies will expand their investment scope beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Currently, the US spot BTC/ETH ETFs have liquidity highly concentrated in a few large-cap tokens, leading to a narrowing market breadth and severe performance divergence. Only when more tokens are included by institutions through ETFs or corporate vaults can broader market participation and liquidity be restored. Major assets like BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, etc., will once again show strong performance and generate widespread wealth effects. The traditional cycle of “BTC rising followed by funds flowing into altcoins” in 2025 has basically broken down, with altcoins’ average upward cycle lasting only about 20 days (compared to about 60 days the previous year), and most tokens continuing to decline due to unlock selling pressure. Only when leading assets surge again can funds reflow downward, activating the altcoin market. Retail investors’ attention is returning to the crypto market. Currently, retail investors are still actively participating, but their funds are mainly invested in high-growth themes such as the S&P 500, AI, robotics, and quantum computing. The painful memories of 2022-2023 (crashes, bankruptcies, forced liquidations) combined with the crypto market’s underperformance compared to traditional stocks in 2025 have significantly reduced the attractiveness of crypto “get-rich-quick” schemes. Only when retail investors return on a large scale can the market regain its frenzy.

BTC-5,21%

ETH-5,85%

BNB-4,1%

SOL-6,68%

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