Three Essential Conditions for the 2026 Crypto Rebound in the Eyes of Market Makers

【Crypto Push】Market maker Wintermute has released an interesting observation: the four-year cycle performance of Bitcoin in 2025 is not ideal, and more painfully, the cycle of altcoins has almost disappeared — this is not a short-term correction, but a change in the entire market structure.

So the question is, what is needed for the crypto market to see a real strong rebound in 2026? Wintermute believes that at least one of the following conditions must be met:

First, institutional expansion. Currently, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs and crypto treasury (DAT) companies are almost entirely focused on these two major assets, causing liquidity to be locked in a few coins, with no attention paid to others. As soon as these institutions start to focus on mainstream assets like BNB, SOL, or even more mid- and long-tail tokens, market breadth could open up, and liquidity can truly start to flow.

Second, major assets surge again. The situation in 2025 was grim — Bitcoin’s rise was the end, and funds no longer flowed into altcoins as before. The average rally cycle for altcoins was halved from 60 days last year to just 20 days, and was further hammered by various unlocks. The only way is for giants like BTC and ETH to surge again, so that when funds splash out, other coins can be activated.

Third, retail investors return. Currently, retail investors are still buying, but their money is mostly invested in the S&P 500, AI concepts, robotics, and quantum computing. The psychological shadow left by the 2022-2023 crypto market — crashes, bankruptcies, forced liquidations — plus this year’s underperformance compared to US stocks, has cooled many people’s enthusiasm for crypto. To reignite market frenzy, a large-scale return of retail investors is indispensable.