What is needed for a strong rebound in the 2026 crypto market? Market maker analysis of the three key factors

Question

【BlockBeats】A market maker recently published a review of the OTC trading market, and some of their insights are worth discussing. In short, they believe that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle will not perform well in 2025, and the cycle for altcoins is almost disappearing. This is not a temporary adjustment but a real change in market structure.

So, for a strong market rebound in 2026, several conditions need to be met. At least one of the following three must happen—

First: ETFs and crypto treasury companies expand investment scope

Currently, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs concentrate liquidity in a few major coins, making the market appear very narrow and performance highly polarized. If more coins can be included by institutions through ETFs or corporate treasuries, the market’s breadth and liquidity could recover. With more projects involved, the ecosystem can truly become more active.

Second: Leading assets surge again, driving wealth effects

This point is quite practical. The traditional cycle in 2025 of “Bitcoin rises, then funds flow into altcoins” has basically broken down. Why? Because the average upward cycle for altcoins is now about 20 days, compared to 60 days the previous year—a threefold reduction. Most tokens are still under unlocking sell pressure and continue to decline. Only major assets like BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL surge again, allowing funds to reflow, which can activate the entire altcoin market.

Third: Retail investors truly re-enter the crypto market

Retail investors are still investing, but their funds are mainly directed toward high-growth themes like the S&P 500, AI, robotics, and quantum computing. Coupled with the painful memories from 2022 to 2023—crashes, bankruptcies, liquidations—and the underperformance of the crypto market compared to traditional stocks in 2025, many feel that the allure of “get rich quick” in crypto has diminished. Only when retail investors return on a large scale can the market regain that frantic momentum.

Overall, any one of these three conditions being met could serve as a market turning point. What do you think? Which condition is most likely to happen first?

memecoin_therapy · Accepted Answer

Shiba Inu coin cycle disappearing? I think instead of waiting for ETFs to expand, it's better to bet on the leading assets to surge again, so retail investors have a chance to jump on board.

BugBountyHunter · Answer

Are altcoin cycles disappearing? It sounds like Bitcoin has really become a toy for institutions now, and small-cap coins are completely fallen.

ETFs are just locking all the money into BTC and ETH, making it even harder for retail investors to turn things around.

Relying solely on expanding investment scope for a rebound probably isn't enough; the crypto space still needs some truly innovative projects to boost the scene.

FromMinerToFarmer · Answer

The idea that altcoin cycles are disappearing makes my scalp tingle... It feels like the crypto world is about to be completely tamed by institutions.

If you ask me, instead of waiting for ETFs to expand, it’s better to hope for a black swan event that washes out these big institutions... Basically, it’s all about betting and game theory.

The concentration of ETF liquidity in major coins is indeed a blow; the days for small-cap coins are getting tougher and tougher.

It seems that the rebound in 2026 will depend more on the Federal Reserve’s stance than on technical analysis.

PrivacyMaximalist · Answer

The idea that the altcoin cycle has disappeared is a bit harsh, but I can understand... ETFs have drained all the liquidity, how can retail investors still play?

DAOdreamer · Answer

The idea that the altcoin cycle has disappeared is a bit extreme; it feels like an excuse for one's own losses.

Expanding the ETF scope? Dream on. Institutions just want to eat the big cake; small-cap coins are simply not on their menu.

If the four-year cycle is invalid, then my dollar-cost averaging strategy over the past two years is useless.

Will leading assets rise again? Unless Bitcoin breaks new highs, there's really no new story in this market.

Instead of waiting for 2026, it's better to think about how to recover this year.

HodlKumamon · Answer

Haha, the four-year cycle is almost a historical relic, right... I sensed this early on.

Wait, expanding ETF investment scope? Market makers must be dreaming. Institutions now are holding tightly to BTC and ETH, and other coins are basically trash in their eyes... unless there are policy changes or a true killer app for altcoins appears, it’s going to be tough.

Will leading assets rise again? That would require a very strong narrative to drive it...

SchrödingersNode · Answer

The cycle of altcoins has disappeared, sounds like it's over... How else to play it?

Market makers are also right; right now, it's all about Bitcoin and Ethereum controlling the market, and it's hard for other coins to get a share.

Will ETF really save the market? I doubt it; institutional money isn't that easy to fool.

Why does it feel like 2026 is even more uncertain than 2024? This cycle has been completely disrupted.

TerraNeverForget · Answer

Are the altcoin cycles gone? What about my buns...

What is needed for a strong rebound in the 2026 crypto market? Market maker analysis of the three key factors

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