The analysis approach over the past week is actually quite straightforward.

First, look at the supply side — the realized profit and loss ratio of long-term holders has returned to the breakeven point, and the distribution scale has significantly shrunk. What does this indicate? Large holders are not in such a rush to sell off their chips.

Next, look at the First Buyers group — their holdings have bottomed out, and there are signs of a slight rebound now. Combined with changes in the Conviction indicator, it shows that market sentiment is gradually recovering. Overall, the on-chain pressure is easing, which conveniently aligns with the judgment of weakening supply. When the data is connected, the logic becomes clear.