#比特币价格走势与预测 After reviewing the latest on-chain data, there are several signals worth paying attention to. Bitcoin may indeed experience a short-term rebound, but the underlying logic needs to be carefully dissected.

Key data points: The net capital flow in the crypto market has dropped to -$4.5 billion, marking the first sustained net outflow in nearly two years. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced nearly $1 billion in net outflows. What does this indicate? Any current market gains are unlikely to be driven by spot demand and are more likely the result of leveraged funds making a rebound.

This reminds me of the trend after the 2021 peak—each rebound felt like a "dead cat bounce," followed by even deeper declines. The historical similarity often conceals risks. If capital continues to flow out, the possibility of prices falling to new lows remains.

My judgment is: there may be short-term rebound space, but chasing highs is not recommended. The real signal should be the turning point in capital flows—when net outflows can turn positive, that will be a worthwhile buying opportunity. Until then, any gains should be viewed as opportunities to sell or reduce positions.