Thinking about shorting SOL in the 4-hour cycle? Hold on first.

The logic seems straightforward—recently, the last 20 candles show SOL up 6.46%, with K1 to K4 all bullish candles. How could it continue to rise? But the trap often lies in seemingly obvious opportunities.

In a strong upward environment, shorting is essentially going against the trend. This kind of operation easily falls into two pitfalls: either getting caught in a narrow consolidation zone and repeatedly getting cut, or mistakenly thinking the trend is ending when in fact a new wave of gains is just beginning. The iron law of the market is "must follow the trend in a strong trend," ignoring this is akin to gambling.

So where is the most critical signal? Look at the K5 candle.

K5 indeed closed with a strong bearish candle, with an 81% real body, seeming like a reversal signal. But here’s a detail—volume completely shrank. The volume for this candle is just over 920,000, compared to 8.23 million at K1 and 7.24 million at K3, a huge gap. A bearish candle without volume support is usually just a short-term correction, not a true trend reversal. Lack of momentum is a false signal; this candle cannot justify a short position.

What story does the entire candle sequence tell? The continuous bullish candles from K1 to K4 are the main characters, clearly indicating that upward momentum is still present. The appearance of K5 is more like a breather for the bulls at a high level, not the start of a bearish counterattack.

There’s also an overlooked angle—open interest.

The Z-Score of OI is only 1.32, indicating that open interest is slightly above normal, far from extreme. More interestingly, from T1 to T3, the price rose but open interest did not increase significantly—this usually means shorts are closing positions or capital is waiting on the sidelines. Rising prices with flat or slightly weakening OI cannot support a shorting stance.

So the advice is straightforward: don’t take this short.

The current market environment is unfriendly to shorts. Instead of betting on a reversal in a strong uptrend, it’s better to step back and wait until the market moves out of a clear consolidation zone before considering high sell and low buy opportunities. This is not cowardice, but respecting the market’s logic.