The Supreme Court decision in the United States is about to be announced tonight at 23:00—whether Trump's tariff policies can withstand legal scrutiny.

Currently, the sentiment in the prediction market is clear: 72% of participants bet that this wave of tariffs will be deemed illegal. What does this probability indicate? The market is pricing in a potential "black swan" risk.

If it is indeed ruled illegal, the subsequent chain reaction could be intense. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will have to refund the hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs collected illegally over the past year or even longer to importers. Usually, interest must also be paid in such cases. Imagine how this scale of capital flow could shock market expectations.

For the crypto market, such macro policy uncertainties often serve as a significant emotional driver. Regardless of the outcome, tonight's ruling could trigger a re-pricing of risk assets.