Looking at Bitcoin's weekly performance recently, this volume-contracted rally is indeed worth pondering. The capital inflow isn't aggressive enough, and there's little selling pressure, with small funds able to push the price. In this situation, the conclusion often depends on your judgment of the current position.

Breaking down into three possibilities: if we're in a high-level zone now, a volume-contracted rally is basically a sign of a rebound or a trap to lure more buyers, with about a 90% probability. But what if we're in a low-level zone? A volume-contracted rally often indicates the early stage of a genuine upward trend; if you grasp it well, the probability exceeds 80%. As for the middle position during consolidation, a volume-contracted rally becomes a weak rebound, with limited reference value, and the probability is around 70%.

An even more interesting question is how the Bitcoin cycle will unfold. Will it break the previous four-year cycle pattern and enter a super cycle? This depends on the subsequent capital flow and policy environment.

Currently, ETH's performance is also worth paying attention to. The logic of their correlation can help you better judge the market trend. What are your thoughts on this wave of行情?