Tonight at 20:30, the US CPI data is about to be released. How important is this data? It directly determines whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next, and by how much, thereby influencing global capital flows. In other words, this is a key factor in deciding Bitcoin's short-term trend.

How might the market react? Let's break down three scenarios:

**Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations, inflation is still hot.** Rate cuts will be delayed, and the US dollar may strengthen. At this time, risk assets will be the first to be affected. Bitcoin's support level at $60,000 will come under pressure, and bears will attempt to test the bottom.

**Scenario 2: Data meets expectations, inflation is steadily cooling.** The market will fall into a classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" tug-of-war. Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate within a range, without a strong directional move.

**Scenario 3: Data is below expectations, inflation is truly cooling.** Expectations for rate cuts will heat up, and funds will flow into risk assets. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and others are expected to gain momentum and may break through recent resistance levels.

What should you do? Here are some tips:

Before the data is released, market volatility tends to decrease, creating a window to reduce leverage and avoid one-sided bets. When the data is announced, liquidity can suddenly change, so avoid placing market orders to fight the price, as this can lead to extreme prices.

After the announcement, it’s important to consider the direction of the US dollar index and treasury yields to determine the market’s true trend. Traders waiting for a clear trend before acting might consider following the trend at this point.

In short, buckle up. Controlling your position size is the first rule to survive tonight’s storm.