Can Bitcoin break through $120,000 to $150,000 in the first half of 2026? IOSG Partner's outlook and prospects

According to PANews, IOSG Partner Co-founder Jocy recently shared a new perspective on the crypto market cycle on social media. She believes that the current phase exhibits entirely different characteristics from the past — instead of a concentrated one-time sell-off, it is a prolonged multi-year dispersive release process.

Three Waves of Distribution for Long-Term Holders

From March 2024 to November 2025, investors holding coins for over two years are cashing out approximately $14 billion worth of BTC. This process is divided into three distinct stages:

First Stage (late 2023 to early 2024): With the approval of spot ETFs, Bitcoin rises from $25,000 to $73,000.

Second Stage (late 2024): Political event catalysts push the price to the $100,000 threshold.

Third Stage (throughout 2025): Bitcoin consolidates above $100,000. Unlike the single rapid releases in 2013, 2017, and 2021, this cycle involves multiple sustained sell-off waves stacking upon each other.

Short-Term Fluctuations and Mid-Term Outlook

Within a 3 to 6-month timeframe, prices are expected to fluctuate between $87,000 and $95,000, with institutional investors continuing to build positions during this period.

Entering the first half of 2026, driven by policy support and institutional strength, Bitcoin’s target price is projected to be between $120,000 and $150,000. The second half of the year faces greater uncertainty, with trends influenced by the coherence of annual policies.

Deeper Implications of On-Chain Data

Since early 2024, the number of BTC dormant for over two years has decreased by 1.6 million coins (about $121 billion), indicating that many old addresses are awakening. This signals both risk — potentially increasing supply pressure — and opportunity — after significant cashing out, the market will enter a new accumulation phase.