#MON The MON token has certain long-term downward potential, but its certainty is difficult to measure precisely. The specific analysis is as follows:

- Overvaluation and unlocking risk: The MON token has a high fully diluted valuation (FDV), which means its theoretical total market cap is relatively high. If the subsequent ecosystem development does not meet expectations, the valuation may be compressed. Additionally, 168 million tokens are scheduled to be released on November 24, 2026. The large token unlock will increase market supply, and if market demand does not grow in tandem, it may lead to a price decline.
- Market competition risk: The public chain sector is highly competitive, and Monad needs to compete with mature L1/L2 networks like Solana and Ethereum. If it falls short in technology implementation, ecosystem construction, and user attraction compared to competitors, it will be difficult to gain sufficient market share. Consequently, the value of the MON token may be affected, with a risk of price decline.
- Project execution risk: Although Monad has technological innovation plans, any emerging crypto asset faces risks regarding whether the technology can be implemented as scheduled and whether it can effectively attract developers and users. If technological upgrades or ecosystem development are hindered, and the expected performance and application scenarios are not realized, the token's value will lose support, potentially leading to long-term price declines.
- Bearish viewpoint reference: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes criticized Monad's high FDV and low circulating supply structure, believing this structure favors early investors. Retail investors are vulnerable to market price adjustments. He warned that after internal token unlocks, a 99% drop could occur, and he holds a pessimistic outlook on its long-term trend.