A research institution recently released a long-term forecasting model suggesting that if Bitcoin ultimately becomes a global reserve asset, its price could reach $2.9 million by 2050. Sounds like a pipe dream? Actually, the logical chain is quite clear. It mainly depends on four variables: first, the long-term depreciation pressure on major global currencies, which will enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a non-sovereign asset; second, the increasing allocation share by institutions and enterprises, which will bring liquidity premiums; third, the possibility of a prolonged Fed interest rate cut cycle, which will lower the yield expectations of alternative assets; finally, institutional investors like pension funds gradually opening up exposure to cryptocurrencies. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above $90,000, and market sentiment is neutral to cautious (the Fear & Greed Index is only 41), which provides a window for longer-term allocation. Of course, predictions are ultimately just predictions, but considering these macro variables together, it’s worth seriously contemplating Bitcoin’s long-term role.