The progress of the US Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in the Senate Banking Committee has now become a suspenseful question. Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn recently highlighted a key figure: to pass legislation in the Senate, at least 60 votes are needed, and the Republican side would also need to secure 7 to 10 Democratic votes.

More specifically, if four Democratic members of the Banking Committee can be persuaded to support, then the 17 Democratic Senators who previously voted in favor of the GENIUS Act might switch sides. It doesn't sound particularly difficult, but the issue is that the committee vote must demonstrate genuine bipartisan cooperation—otherwise, the chances of passing this in 2026 are directly cut in half.

The timeline has become a bit complicated. TD Cowen's forecast is even more pessimistic: if Democrats choose to delay the vote, the bill might not pass until 2027, with implementation possibly not until 2029. This also involves the variables of the 2026 midterm elections.

Ray Dalio also issued a warning—if the Republicans lose control in the midterms, these favorable policy frameworks could vanish into thin air. In other words, the window of opportunity is only a few years, and time is tight for the industry. In the short term, if the bill stalls, investor sentiment will definitely be under pressure. That’s also why the crypto community has been closely watching US policy developments these days.