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Non-farm payroll data arrived as scheduled, but the market reaction was not as intense as expected—the classic pattern of loud thunder with little rain played out again. Bitcoin's volatility range has actually been bouncing around 2000 points; honestly, there's nothing particularly surprising about it. Looking back, even without the non-farm payroll as a catalyst, our strategy yesterday should have been to position for long near 90,000, as thoroughly discussed in previous analyses.
The market only reached the target level in the evening, although with some delay, but it ultimately moved out. However, this is far from enough maturity. The probability of continuing to rise remains high, with inevitable fluctuations in between—pullbacks to around 90,000 or 89,000 are possible, but such oscillations are not enough to shake the overall upward framework. Instead of chasing highs, it's better to gradually add positions on each pullback, using time to gain space.
**Technical Scan:**
The daily chart shows Bitcoin recently stuck in a consolidation pattern, with recent highs stuck at the 92,000 integer level without breaking through, and support at around 89,600. This range is currently our "playground." On the hourly chart, a short-term rebound has already started, but there's significant resistance—there are still many sell orders stacked around 92,000 waiting to be hit.
Looking at the MACD indicator, on the hourly chart, DIF is rising slowly but remains negative, DEA continues to decline, and the red histogram is shrinking, indicating that momentum has not fully recovered. The daily MACD's green histogram is shrinking, suggesting some easing of the bearish momentum. RSI on the hourly chart is at 57, approaching overbought territory but not yet at extreme levels. The daily RSI hovers around 50, maintaining a neutral market sentiment. Regarding EMAs, the hourly 7-period EMA has already crossed above the 30-period EMA, signaling a short-term rebound, but the 120 EMA still acts as resistance; the daily EMA shows a bullish alignment, with the long-term bullish trend intact.
**Key Trading Ideas:**
**Bitcoin (BTC)**
- Short opportunity: Short in the 93,000-92,200 range, with a stop-loss above 93,800, targeting 90,800-90,000.
- Long opportunity: Look for long entries in the 89,700-90,500 range, with a stop-loss below 89,000, targeting 91,700-92,500.
**Ethereum (ETH)**
- Short opportunity: Short at the high in the 3,170-3,135 range, with a stop above 3,210, targeting 3,070-3,030.
- Long opportunity: Long at the bottom in the 3,030-3,070 range, with a stop below 3,000, targeting 3,130-3,170.
This is the current situation: both technical patterns and capital flow point to continued bullishness, but oscillations along the way are inevitable. A prudent approach is to stick to a range-bound long strategy, patiently positioning at each support level, always prioritizing risk management.