#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 The Democratic Party pushes for prediction market regulation, with 30 lawmakers co-sponsoring anti-insider trading bill

A recent incident has put prediction markets under unprecedented regulatory pressure. On a certain prediction platform, a new account wagered $32,000 on a political figure’s downfall and ultimately netted over $400,000—an astonishing 1242% return. The issue is that the timing of this trade nearly coincides with a major decision by the U.S. government, raising clear suspicions of insider trading.

Now, Democrats are getting restless. Lawmakers from New York have proposed the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act," aiming to regulate prediction platforms. Including a former House Speaker, 30 Democratic members have expressed support.

What does the bill require? Simply put: federal officials, political appointees, and administrative staff are prohibited from participating in any prediction trades related to government policies or political outcomes using non-public information. It’s essentially applying traditional insider trading rules from the stock market directly to the new domain of prediction markets.

The current challenge is that platforms like Polymarket operate across borders and offer anonymous trading, making regulation difficult. The advancement of this bill could change the entire landscape of prediction markets. How it will be implemented remains to be seen, depending on subsequent enforcement plans.