2026-01-09 17:34:35

The probability of a rate cut at the January 28 Federal Reserve meeting has dropped dramatically, now sitting at just 2.8%. This sharp decline in market expectations signals a shift in how traders are pricing in monetary policy developments. With such minimal odds reflected in futures markets, the Fed's current hawkish stance appears to be gaining credibility among investors. For crypto traders, these interest rate expectations remain crucial—tighter monetary policy typically pressures alternative assets like digital currencies, making this data point worth monitoring closely.

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EyeOfTheTokenStorm

· 01-12 16:54

2.8%？Oh my, is the Fed really going to stick to its hardline stance... --- Looking at historical data, this kind of deadlock usually signals a bottom, but the recent sell-off in the crypto market is really outrageous. --- Are they trying to trick us into buying again? If interest rates don't fall, BTC will continue to be hammered. --- Quantitative models indicate risk⚠️ Tightening expectations + bearish sentiment, entering the market now is just gambling mentality. --- Basically, the Fed is just bluffing; the market has already seen through it, but retail investors always react a beat too late. --- This data reminds me of late 2017... back then, everyone was so pessimistic, and what happened? But now, the market structure has changed, so simple comparisons don't work. --- What does 2.8% mean? It means big institutions have already priced it in; we're still here worrying.

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