The prediction market is once again caught in a regulatory storm. Recently, more than 30 Democratic lawmakers in the United States have jointly proposed a new legislative bill—the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act," with the core goal of banning elected officials from engaging in political-related trading and betting in prediction markets.

There is a specific triggering event behind this move. On a major prediction market platform, an account bet that a former president of a certain country would lose power by the end of January, ultimately profiting $400,000 from this wager. This incident then sparked widespread questions about insider trading and market abuse. A member of the New York State Assembly officially submitted this bill this Friday.

From an industry perspective, this reflects that prediction markets, as an emerging sector, are facing increasing compliance pressures. Political gambling, information asymmetry, and potential insider trading risks—these have become focal points for regulators. Market participants need to raise their risk awareness, especially when trading involving political events, and exercise greater caution.