The Strategy Playbook Looks Different in 2026

Source: Blockworks Original Title: The Strategy playbook looks different in 2026 Original Link: Strategy has stepped back in as a visible treasury bid for BTC, but with a very different financing backdrop compared to 2024-2025.

At the end of December, Strategy raised cash but barely deployed it into BTC. On Dec. 29-31, it sold 1,255,911 MSTR shares for $195.9 million net proceeds, yet bought only 3 BTC. In early January, deployment resumed: Jan. 1-4 saw another 735,000 shares sold for $116.3 million net, and 1,283 BTC bought for $116 million (avg $90,391/BTC), bringing holdings to 673,783 BTC.

The bigger signal sits in the financing backdrop. In 2024 through early 2025, Strategy funded itself cheaply via convertible debt (cash coupons 0.625% to 2.25%, then multiple 0% converts). That playbook works best when MSTR trades at a premium to Bitcoin NAV (mNAV > 1) because of the equity optionality.

However, by mid-to-late 2025, that premium compressed and flipped to a discount (mNAV < 1), making equity-linked financing harder to place and common issuance mechanically dilutive to BTC-per-share. As a result, the financing shifted toward high-cash-cost preferred, often issued below par, printing roughly 10% to 12.5% effective cash cost on proceeds. STRC’s dividend rate has been stepped up from 9% (August 2025) to 11.0% (January 2026) to keep the channel open.

Interestingly, Strategy is still funding buys by issuing common via the ATM even at an mNAV discount, accepting short-term dilution to keep accumulating and maintain liquidity. When mNAV is below 1 and marginal funding costs are double-digit, scaling purchases becomes both more dilutive and more expensive. That makes Strategy a less-reliable, less-price-setting buyer compared to prior premium regimes. It will still matter as a sentiment marker, but unless the premium reopens, its flow is more likely to be episodic clips than a sustained engine for the tape.

Zooming out, 2025’s marginal bid was essentially a two-horse race: spot ETFs and Strategy. On the accumulation chart, Strategy’s cumulative purchases tracked in the same range as ETFs for much of the year, meaning Strategy was comparable in flow impact to the ETF complex at points.

The setup for 2026 looks materially weaker. With mNAV compressed and financing shifting toward double-digit preferred costs plus dilutive ATM common issuance, Strategy’s bid becomes harder to scale without worsening BTC-per-share dilution. Strategy is still a sentiment marker, but the buying pressure should be more muted and episodic, leaving ETF flows and broader crypto risk appetite as the more reliable price-setting forces.