The journey of gold towards $5000: Are we expecting a record-breaking year in 2026?

As 2025 approaches its end, investors are eagerly looking forward to the investment opportunities that 2026 holds in the gold market. Last year saw tremendous jumps that pushed prices to unprecedented levels, but the real question now is: will this rally continue or are we entering a stabilization phase?

Market Consensus: Gold Price Expectations Point Higher

The world’s largest investment banks agree on a unified outlook: 2026 will be the year of gold. HSBC Bank forecasted prices reaching $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4,600, a significant increase compared to an average of $3,455 in 2025.

Bank of America’s projections confirm this trend, raising its forecast to target $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4,400 for the year. Goldman Sachs did not lag behind, adjusting its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, while J.P. Morgan predicted a bolder target of $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts extends from $4,800 to $5,000 as a potential peak during the year, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800.

Driving Factors: Why Is Gold Rising?

1- Massive Investment Demand

The numbers speak for themselves. The World Gold Council indicated that total demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons valued at $132 billion, a 45% increase year-over-year.

Even more striking are the inflows into gold-backed ETFs(, which recorded $21 billion in the first half of 2025 alone, pushing assets under management to $472 billion and holdings to 3,838 tons. This approaches a historical peak estimated at 3,929 tons, reflecting growing confidence in gold as a safe haven.

) 2- Central Banks Keep Buying

Central bank purchases of gold have become a clear trend. They added 244 tons in Q1 2025 alone, which is 24% higher than the five-year quarterly average.

The numbers indicate a profound strategic shift: the percentage of central banks holding gold reserves jumped from 37% in 2024 to 44% in 2025. China continued its steady buying, adding more than 65 tons, while Turkey and India kept increasing their reserves strongly.

3- Real Supply Shortage

Although mine production hit 856 tons in Q1 2025, it was not enough to bridge the widening gap between demand and supply. More concerning is that recycled gold decreased by 1% during the same period, as holders prefer to keep their gold in anticipation of higher prices.

Mining costs are rising sharply. The global average extraction cost reached around $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade, meaning any increase in production will be slow and very costly.

Economic Context: The Perfect Environment for a Rally

Accommodative Monetary Policy

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025, bringing the range to 3.75-4.00%. Market expectations point to an additional 25 basis points cut in December 2025. BlackRock reports suggest that interest rates could fall to 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario.

This decline in real yields reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, increasing its appeal as a hedge asset.

Weak Dollar and Rising Debt

The dollar index fell by 7.64% from its peak at the start of 2025 through November 21, 2025. US 10-year bond yields slipped from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% in November 2025.

Global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, according to the IMF. This drives investors toward safe assets, and gold perfectly fills this gap.

Geopolitical Tensions Support Demand

Trade conflicts between the US and China, along with tensions in the Middle East, increased gold demand by 7% annually. Mid-October 2025 trading saw prices surpass $4,381 per ounce, setting a new record.

Middle East: Regional Opportunities

Gulf and Arab central banks have begun boosting their gold reserves. If the global price reaches $5,000 per ounce in 2026:

• In Saudi Arabia: the ounce could reach approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR ###at an exchange rate of 3.75-3.80(
• In the UAE: the conversion could give 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce
• In Egypt: projections indicate around 522,580 EGP per ounce, an increase of up to 158.46% over current prices

Headwinds: Correction Risks

Despite widespread optimism, warnings cannot be ignored. HSBC pointed to a possible correction down to $4,200 in the second half of 2026 if investors start taking profits, but ruled out falling below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs also warned that prices remaining above $4,800 could face a “price credibility test,” especially with weak industrial demand.

Technical Analysis: Neutral Signals Currently

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4,065.01 per ounce. The price remains above the main upward trendline connecting lows around $4,050.

The RSI) (Relative Strength Index) is steady at 50, indicating a fully neutral market with no clear bias. The MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

Critical levels:

• Support: $4,000 (key zone)
• First Resistance: $4,200
• Second Resistance: $4,400 then $4,680

The near-term scenario suggests sideways trading with a slight upward bias between $4,000 and $4,220, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Conclusion: 2026 at a Crossroads

Gold price forecasts for 2026 depend on a delicate balance of supporting and potential factors. If real yields continue to decline and the dollar weakens, gold could hit new all-time highs near $5,000 per ounce.

However, if confidence gradually returns to financial markets and inflation drops sharply, gold may settle at lower levels. Investors should closely monitor central bank decisions and economic data, especially real interest rates and currency pressures, to anticipate the metal’s actual trajectory in the coming months.