Gold forecasts today and analysis of expected trends.. Will the safe-haven metal face downward pressure?

Gold has experienced a limited downward movement in recent trading sessions, amid cautious market sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, which will be announced in the coming days. Traders are closely watching officials’ statements and interest rate decisions, which will shape the next phase of global economic trends.

This phase occurs within a complex global economic context, with multiple concerns competing: residual inflationary pressures, the possibility of rate cuts, the weakness of the US dollar, ongoing geopolitical threats, and warnings from major financial institutions about potential asset price bubbles.

Global and Regional Price Performance

The spot gold price declined by 0.2% to close at $4,189.49 per ounce yesterday. Futures contracts for delivery in February fell by 0.6% to settle at $4,217.7 per ounce, after a strong rally that pushed the metal close to new historic levels.

Gold opened today at $4,174.91 per ounce, a slight decrease of 0.3%, amid market anticipation of the central bank’s decisions. The highest updates during the session reached around $4,223.25 before declining again. December 2025 futures also fell to $4,202.70, down 0.4%, due to rising US bond yields.

In Saudi Arabia, the price of 24-karat gold per gram remained stable at 520 SAR with limited sideways movement, while 22-karat was around 478 SAR and 18-karat about 391 SAR. The ounce decreased by 0.31% to 15,775.73 SAR, reflecting a calm movement with a slight downward bias.

In Dubai, the price of 24-karat gold per gram remained steady at 506.25 AED for sale, while 22-karat was 468.75 AED and 18-karat about 385.25 AED. The ounce declined by 0.31% to 15,435.95 AED, a decrease of 48.49 AED.

Regarding other Arab markets, gold in Egypt was recorded at 6,400 EGP per ounce of 24-karat, while 21-karat was around 5,600 EGP and 18-karat about 4,800 EGP. In Jordan, the gram of 24-karat gold was approximately 95.600 JOD with limited movements. In Kuwait, the ounce remained at 1,290.567 KWD, a slight decrease of 0.31%.

Main Drivers of Price Movements

Market Focus on the Central Bank’s Decision

Market participants expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the new range to between 3.50% and 3.75%. Market tools indicate a strong probability of a cut at around 90%, reflecting near-unanimous expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed.

However, this does not mean the path will be straightforward. US inflation remains above the 2% target, and there are divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee between those favoring support for the labor market and those focusing on price control. If officials’ statements adopt a less dovish tone than expected, gold could face corrective pressures, and rising US bond yields may reduce the metal’s attractiveness.

Decline in US Stock Market Performance

The S&P 500 decreased by 0.35% to close at 6,846.51 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.14% to 23,545.90 points, and the Dow Jones lost 215.67 points to close at 47,739.32 points. This decline reflects investor concerns about ongoing inflationary pressures in the new year and the Fed’s ability to maintain easing without threatening price stability.

Decline in US Household Sentiment

Recent surveys show a clear decline in US household confidence regarding their financial situation, especially about the current state, despite inflation expectations remaining stable at 3.2% over the next year. However, outlooks for the labor market have improved, and unemployment fears have dropped to levels not seen since December 2024.

This mix of signals provides moderate support for gold, combining weak confidence and safe-haven demand with a slowdown in upward momentum due to rising bond yields.

Geopolitical Environment and Its Impact

The main Western countries continue to support Ukraine’s stance amid pressure on Kyiv to negotiate a potential peace agreement. This geopolitical complexity enhances the appeal of precious metals as safe havens during times of uncertainty.

Analysis Trends and Future Outlooks

Some major financial institutions see additional opportunities for gold to rise, supported by a weakening US dollar, increased ETF purchases, and continued central bank buying. Estimates suggest these factors could create a stronger bullish environment in the coming months.

According to experts, the US dollar may face gradual downward pressure until the end of 2026, especially as major central banks move toward successive rate cuts. Some estimates indicate that reaching $5,000 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026 is within possible scenarios.

Performance of Other Precious Metals

Silver declined by 0.5% to $57.98 per ounce after reaching a high of $59.32 on Friday. Its movement was unusual, as silver typically follows gold’s lead. Estimates suggest it could surpass $60 and approach $70 before the year’s end.

Platinum slightly decreased by 0.1% to $1,644.31 per ounce, while palladium rose by 0.2% to $1,460.75, reflecting mixed movements within the precious metals sector.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price Forecast

Gold is moving within a long-term upward trend since early November 2025, supported by a strong upward trendline forming the backbone of the movement. The price is currently consolidating after a strong rally, trading around $4,182.500 amid market anticipation.

Current Technical Indicators

The upward trendline acts as a dynamic support around $4,120 to $4,140. The 100-period simple moving average is near $4,138.242, forming a strong double support zone. Holding above this level reinforces the bullish outlook.

The MACD indicator is near the zero line with the lines converging, indicating current weak momentum. The RSI oscillates in the neutral zone with a downward bias below 50, suggesting increased short-term bearish momentum without entering oversold territory.

Critical Levels to Watch

On the upside, key resistance levels are at $4,205, $4,240, and $4,270. On the downside, major supports are at $4,170, $4,138.242, $4,116.496, and $4,085.

Likely Scenarios

The bullish trend remains the most probable as long as gold stays above $4,170, with potential to break through $4,205 to reach the next targets at $4,240 and $4,270. A break below $4,170 with two consecutive closes could open the door toward the double support zone between $4,138 and $4,116.