Gold 2026: Will we really witness a breakthrough towards $5000?

Gold’s trajectory in 2025 has written an inspiring story for investors. Throughout this year, the yellow metal touched levels never seen before, reaching a peak of $4,381 per ounce in mid-October before retreating to the $4,065 range as the year ended. This volatility has sparked curiosity among investment portfolios about what awaits in 2026—will this year see a breakthrough beyond the $5,000 mark, or will corrections dominate the scene?

Why Do Investors Choose Gold?

The answer lies in the nature of this precious metal, which acts as a defensive hedge during times of turmoil. In 2025, demand for gold was on a continuous rise, with total demand in Q2 reaching 1,249 tons, a 3% annual increase, while its value extended to $132 billion, a 45% rise. This surge didn’t happen out of nowhere; multiple factors pushed investors toward this safe haven.

Exchange-traded gold funds became a major attraction, experiencing massive inflows that brought managed assets to $472 billion, meaning holdings reached 3,838 tons—a 6% increase. This figure is gradually approaching the all-time peak of 3,929 tons.

Central banks also kept pace, doubling efforts to diversify reserves away from the US dollar. In Q1 2025, purchases totaled 244 tons, exceeding the previous quarterly average by 24%. Data shows that 44% of global central banks now hold gold reserves, up from 37% just a year earlier.

Supply and Demand Equation: Concerning Imbalance

This is where the real secret to the bullish gold price outlook lies. Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, but that was not enough to meet the increasing market needs. The gap between demand and supply continues to widen, especially as recycled gold declined by 1% during the same period, as owners of gold pieces preferred to hold rather than sell.

This supply shortage increases the likelihood of continued upward pressure on prices. An additional factor is cost—global average extraction costs rose to $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade. This means any increase in production will be slow and costly.

Monetary Policies: Winds Favoring Gold

The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice since December 2024, with indications of further cuts ahead. In October 2025 alone, rates were lowered by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.00%. Markets expect another cut in December 2025.

This easing path directly supports gold price expectations. When interest rates fall, real yields on bonds also decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Additionally, low interest rates weaken the US dollar, which has fallen 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year through mid-November 2025.

Other central banks are following suit, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan maintaining easing policies, boosting global demand for safe havens.

Geopolitical Factors: Fear Boosts Prices

Trade conflicts between the US and China, along with tensions in the Middle East, have pushed investors to increase their exposure to gold. Global news agencies reported that geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 raised demand by 7% year-over-year.

As fears escalated over the Taiwan Strait and global energy supplies in Q3, spot prices jumped to $3,400 per ounce. Later, amid ongoing uncertainty, prices continued rising past $4,300.

This historical behavior teaches us that any new geopolitical shock in 2026 could be enough to push prices to new record highs.

Global Debt and Persistent Inflation

Global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP according to the IMF, raising serious concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies in major economies. This situation has led investors to turn to gold as a hedge against loss of purchasing power.

The World Bank estimated that gold prices increased by 35% in 2025, partly driven by inflationary pressures. As 2026 approaches, analysts expect some of these pressures to ease, but prices will remain high compared to previous years.

Data from Bloomberg Economics shows that 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold positions in Q3 2025 specifically due to sovereign debt concerns.

What Do Major Financial Institutions Expect?

Gold price forecasts from leading banks indicate ambitious levels:

HSBC expects a strong start toward $5,000 per ounce in H1 2026, with an average forecast of $4,600 over the year, compared to an average of $3,455 in 2025.

Bank of America raised its forecast to $5,000 as well, as a potential peak in 2026, with an expected average of $4,400. However, it warned of short-term corrections if investors take profits.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, supported by strong inflows into gold ETFs and continued central bank buying.

J.P. Morgan expects gold to reach around $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among these forecasts is between $4,800 and $5,000 as a potential peak, with an expected average between $4,200 and $4,800.

Gold Price Outlook in the Middle East

The region has seen notable activity in central bank gold reserves. The Central Bank of Egypt added one ton in Q1 2025, while the Central Bank of Qatar added 3 tons.

In Egypt, gold price forecasts suggest reaching approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce in 2026, representing a 158.46% increase over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia, translating the global forecast of $5,000 per ounce into SAR at a fixed exchange rate between 3.75 and 3.80 could see prices approaching 18,750 to 19,000 SAR.

In the UAE, the same forecast could translate to 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

It’s important to remember that these projections depend on assumptions such as stable exchange rates and continued global demand without major economic upheavals.

Risks and Potential Corrections

Not all forecasts are entirely optimistic. HSBC warned that upward momentum might weaken in H2 2026, with a possible correction toward $4,200 per ounce if investors heavily take profits. However, it ruled out a collapse below $3,800 unless a severe economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that sustained prices above $4,800 could test the market’s “price credibility,” i.e., gold’s ability to maintain high levels.

Meanwhile, analysts from J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception of it as a long-term asset.

Technical Analysis: What Do Charts Say?

By the end of November 2025, gold closed at $4,065 per ounce after breaking the upward channel on the daily timeframe that extended from August to mid-October. However, it still holds the main short- and medium-term uptrend line.

The $4,000 level acts as strong support; a clear daily close below could target $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement). Conversely, $4,200 represents the first strong resistance level, with a breakout opening the way toward $4,400 and $4,680.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at around 50, indicating market neutrality. The MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

The technical outlook suggests continued sideways trading within a mildly upward sloping range between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

How Can Investors Capitalize on These Opportunities?

Investors have multiple options to participate in gold movements:

Physical Purchase: Actual gold bars or coins offer real ownership but require storage and security.

ETFs: Gold ETFs provide easier access and lower costs.

Mining Stocks: Buying shares of mining and trading companies offers indirect exposure.

CFDs: Contracts for difference allow traders to speculate on short-term price movements. Remember, CFDs carry high risks and require a trusted broker with robust analysis tools and 24/7 customer support.

Summary

Gold price forecasts for 2026 generally look positive but depend on the stability of certain factors. If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to hit new record highs near $5,000. Conversely, if inflation subsides and market confidence returns, the metal may enter a long-term stabilization phase.

What is certain is that this precious metal will remain a focal point for investors and central banks seeking safety amid an uncertain economic world.