Gold is on track to break records.. What do you expect in 2026?

Gold market in 2025 experienced an unprecedented surge, with the price breaking the $4,300 per ounce barrier in October before experiencing a slight pullback to around $4,000. These strong movements have sparked widespread discussions about the upcoming price trajectory and whether the precious metal can break through the $5,000 level during 2026.

What supports the continuous rise?

This rally doesn’t come out of nowhere. Recent data from the World Gold Council shows that global demand for the yellow metal reached 1,249 tons in Q2 2025 alone, with a total value of $132 billion. This reflects a 45% increase compared to the same period last year.

The picture becomes clearer when looking at gold ETFs, which saw massive capital inflows, pushing assets under management to $472 billion and holdings to 3,838 tons—very close to the all-time peak of 3,929 tons.

Central banks… the biggest buyers

What is truly noteworthy is the behavior of global central banks. These institutions alone added 244 tons of gold in Q1 2025, a figure exceeding the five-year quarterly average by 24%.

The numbers tell more: 44% of central banks worldwide now manage gold reserves, up from just 37% in 2024. China alone added over 65 tons, reflecting a strategic move to diversify assets away from the US dollar.

The problem: supply does not keep pace with demand

Although mine production hit a record 856 tons in Q1 2025, this was not enough to bridge the widening gap between demand and supply. Worse, recycled gold decreased by 1%, as holders prefer to keep their metals in anticipation of further gains.

Another issue: extraction costs rose to $1,470 per ounce—the highest in a decade. This means expanding production will be costly and slow.

The Fed approaches a turning point

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last October, bringing the range to 3.75-4.00%. Markets expect an additional 25 basis point cut in December, making it the third since the start of the year.

This is very important for gold: reports from BlackRock suggest the Fed may target an interest rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026. If achieved, real bond yields will decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset.

Weak dollar = strong gold

In 2025, the dollar index declined by 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year. Simultaneously, US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% to around 4.07%.

This duo—weak dollar and falling yields—created an ideal environment for gold to rise. Investors are seeking to rebalance their portfolios away from dollar-denominated assets.

Debt and inflation: ongoing factors

The International Monetary Fund warned that global public debt exceeded 100% of GDP. This pushes investors to seek safe havens, and there may be no better than gold.

Bloomberg reports showed that 42% of major hedge funds increased their positions in gold during Q3 2025, in an attempt to hedge against long-term financial risks.

Geopolitical tensions: an unexpected driver

Geopolitical uncertainty increased demand for gold by 7% year-over-year, according to Reuters. Trade conflicts, concerns over the Taiwan Strait, and energy supply fears—all made gold the preferred safe haven.

What do experts expect for 2026?

Expectations are largely optimistic and unified:

HSBC predicts gold will reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026, with an average of $4,600 for the year.

Bank of America raised its forecast to $5,000 as well, with an expected average of $4,400, but warned of a potential short-term correction if investors start taking profits.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing continued strong inflows into gold funds and institutional demand.

J.P. Morgan expects gold to reach around $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts is between $4,800 and $5,000, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800.

And what about the risk?

Not everything is rosy. HSBC warned that upward momentum might weaken in the second half of 2026, with a possible correction toward $4,200 if investors start profit-taking. However, the bank ruled out a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs also warned: if prices stay above $4,800, the market will face a “price credibility test”—a challenge to gold’s ability to maintain high levels amid relatively low industrial demand.

Nevertheless, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank analysts agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in how investors view the metal—not as a speculative tool, but as a long-term asset.

Technical picture: where is it heading now?

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4,065 per ounce, after touching a high of $4,381.44 on October 20. The price broke out of an upward channel but still holds the main uptrend line.

$4,000 is a strong support level. Breaking below could target $3,800, (50% Fibonacci retracement), while a breakout above $4,200 could open the way to $4,400 and $4,680.

The RSI indicator is stable at 50, reflecting a neutral state—no strong decline or rally. The MACD still indicates a general upward trend. The outlook: sideways trading leaning upward between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trend line.

Summary: multiple scenarios

The real question is not “Will gold rise?” but “How much will it rise?” Expectations for 2026 suggest gold is poised to set new all-time highs, especially if real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak.

However, if global inflation recedes and confidence returns to financial markets, gold may enter a long-term stabilization phase, potentially preventing it from reaching $5,000.

Gold price forecasts for the coming year will ultimately depend on the interaction of multiple factors: global monetary policy, dollar trajectory, inflation levels, and geopolitical events. In any case, the yellow metal seems set to remain a key hedge in investors’ portfolios.