Gold in 2026: Are New Peaks Awaiting Us or a Painful Correction?

Gold in 2025 experienced a mix of concern and excitement. It rose from an average of $3,455 per ounce to levels unseen before, reaching a high of $4,381 last October, then retreating toward $4,000 by the end of November. This sharp volatility raises a key question: Is this the start of a race toward $5,000 in the first half of 2026, or are we on the verge of a deep correction?

Factors That Will Determine Gold’s Future Path

1. What about global demand?

Data tells an intriguing story. The World Gold Council estimated that total demand in the first half of 2025 reached 1,249 tons valued at $132 billion, a 45% annual increase. Gold ETFs alone absorbed massive inflows, pushing total assets under management to $472 billion with holdings of 3,838 tons—very close to the all-time peak of 3,929 tons.

Notably, individual investments emerged as a new force. Data showed that 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time last year, maintaining their positions even during short-term corrections. This indicates a structural shift: from speculative trading to long-term strategic allocation.

( 2. Central banks: the true buyers

Here lies the deeper story. In Q1 2025 alone, central banks added 244 tons, 24% above the five-year quarterly average. China alone added over 65 tons, marking the 22nd consecutive month of ongoing purchases. Turkey increased its reserves to over 600 tons.

The key indicator: 44% of global central banks now hold gold reserves, up from just 37% in 2024. The council expects this wave to continue until the end of 2026, especially in emerging markets seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar.

) 3. Supply dilemma: scarcity supports prices

Here’s the surprise. Although mines achieved a record production of 856 tons in Q1 2025 ###a slight increase of 1%###, they couldn’t keep pace with rising demand. Worse still, recycled gold decreased by 1% as owners preferred to hold onto their gold pieces amid expectations of continued price increases.

Mining costs rose to $1,470 per ounce by mid-2025, the highest in a decade. This means any expansion in production will be slow and costly, maintaining relative scarcity and supporting prices.

( 4. The dollar and yields: the inverse relationship

The dollar index declined about 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 to the end of November, influenced by expectations of rate cuts. US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% to 4.07%.

This dual decline means gold has become more attractive to foreign investors )weaker dollar = cheaper price in their currencies###, while the opportunity cost (lower yields on bonds = lower cost of holding gold as a hedge).

( 5. Monetary policy: rate cuts ahead

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October 2025 to a range of 3.75-4.00%. Markets are pricing in an additional 25 basis point cut at the December meeting. Some Fed officials forecast two more cuts before the end of 2025.

Reports from BlackRock suggest the Fed may target a 3.4% rate by the end of 2026. If these forecasts materialize, real bond yields will decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and boosting its appeal.

) 6. Debt and inflation: the old new fear

Global public debt exceeded 100% of GDP according to the IMF. This raised concerns about fiscal sustainability, pushing investors toward gold as a safe haven.

Bloomberg Economics data showed that 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025. The World Bank forecasts a slowdown in inflationary pressures in 2026, but prices will remain high compared to previous years.

7. Geopolitical crises: the constant fuel

Trade tensions between the US and China, along with Middle East tensions, pushed investors to increase exposure to gold. Reuters reported that geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 boosted demand by 7% annually.

As tensions around Taiwan and global energy supplies escalated, prices jumped to $3,400 in July, then to $4,300 in October. The historical pattern is clear: gold moves swiftly with crises.

Top Analysts’ Outlook for 2026

HSBC: expects a rally reaching $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4,600 ###compared to $3,455 average in 2025###.

Bank of America: raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak, but with an average of $4,400, warning of a short-term correction if investors start taking profits.

Goldman Sachs: adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs and continued central bank purchases.

J.P. Morgan: expects around $5,055 by mid-2026, with Q4 2025 average near $3,675.

Most common range among analysts: between $4,800 and $5,000 as a peak, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800.

Technical Analysis: What does the chart say?

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4,065, after touching a high of $4,381 on October 20. The price broke the upward channel on the daily chart but remains anchored to the main uptrend line around $4,050.

Key support is at around $4,000. A clear daily close below this could target $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement level). On the upside, $4,200 is the first strong resistance, followed by $4,400 and $4,680.

The RSI is balanced at 50, indicating neutrality—neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend. The expectation: continued sideways trading between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term.

Possible scenarios in 2026

Bullish scenario (60%) If real yields continue to decline, the dollar remains weak, and no severe economic shock occurs, gold could hit new all-time highs approaching $5,000. Ongoing central bank and institutional buying will provide support from below.

Neutral scenario (25%) Gold may enter a prolonged stabilization phase in the $4,200-$4,800 range, with periodic profit-taking that tempers sharp jumps. This could prevent reaching $5,000 quickly.

Bearish scenario (15%) If inflation drops sharply and market confidence returns, gold could fall toward $3,800. However, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank analysts exclude a deep decline unless a major economic shock occurs.

Gold in the Middle East: Local figures

In Egypt: CoinCodex forecasts suggest reaching around 522,580 EGP per ounce, a 158.46% increase over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia: Translating the global forecast ($5,000) into SAR at an exchange rate of 3.75-3.80 SAR/USD, we could see approximately 18,750-19,000 SAR per ounce.

In UAE: The same scenario estimates between 18,375-19,000 AED per ounce.

These projections assume stable exchange rates and no major economic upheavals.

Summary: What do we really expect?

As 2025 draws to a close, it’s clear that the market is undergoing a structural shift. Gold is no longer just a speculative tool but has become a strategic allocation essential for both professional and individual investors’ portfolios.

Gold price forecasts for 2026 depend on a delicate balance of competing factors: ongoing demand, scarcity, and accommodative monetary policies support prices. On the other hand, profit-taking and technical corrections may impose temporary pauses.

The truth? Gold has entered a new price zone that most analysts find hard to break downward. Whether it reaches $5,000 or stabilizes around $4,200-$4,400, the ounce of gold will remain the top choice for investors seeking safety in an uncertain economic world.