2026-01-06 11:59:45

Currently leaning towards short selling, I have summarized two options and the analysis logic.

Option 1: Resistance at high levels (Left trade - higher efficiency and less loss)
• Entry point: Wait until the price rises again to the range of $3,260 - $3,275 (Near the previous high and the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands).
• Stop-loss level: $3,290.
• Reason: If it breaks through $3,290, it indicates that the upward space on the daily level has opened, and short selling should exit immediately and stop losses.
• First target: $3,180 (The middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the hourly).
• Second target: $3,120 (The lower band of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart).
Option 2: Confirm the breakout (Right trade - more stable)
• Entry point: Wait until the 15-minute candle breaks and closes below $3,210 (Any short-term support break).
• Stop-loss level: $3,240 (Wait until it does not rebound again).
• Target: $3,130 - $3,150.

Short selling restrictions (Attention needed)
1. Completely prohibit "holding the position": The overall trend is currently bullish, and short selling is only to benefit from the correction. If the price strongly breaks through $3,300, it indicates the market is entering a phase of accelerated rise, and short selling should not be taken to the death.
2. Take profits in stages: Since the trend is reversed, when the price drops to a certain support level (Like $3,180), reduce the size or adjust the stop-loss to the entry point to ensure capital safety.
3. Monitor trading volume: If the price trades around $3,260 and does not decline, and trading volume decreases, this often signals the market is preparing to rise again, and the short position should be withdrawn in this case.

Analysis of the logic for opening the trade:

First, analyze the depth of market movement
Ethereum is currently in a strong upward trend but faces short-term correction pressure:
1. On the daily level: The price is in a significant rebound phase, approaching the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands (around 3281). The KDJ indicator shows that the J value has exceeded 100 (101.95), indicating an overbought condition, meaning the trend is bullish, but the risk and reward at the current price are not ideal.
2. On the 4-hour level: A typical upward arrangement. The price moves along the upper Bollinger Band, and MACD shows a golden cross with increasing volume. The key point is the last peak at 3,263.78, and if it is not broken with volume, a short-term double top or oscillation at a high level may form.
3. On the hourly / 15-minute level: Oscillation has begun to converge, and the Bollinger Bands are flattening. This is often a sign that a trend reversal is approaching. On the hourly chart, the MACD shows a shrinking red bar, indicating weakening short-term upward momentum.
Strong resistance level: 3264-3300, previous peak pressure + valid level + the upper Bollinger Band of the daily.
First support: 3180-3200, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the hourly and 4-hour charts, with psychological support.
Strong support: 3120-3130, the lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart, and the previous low on the 15-minute chart.
1. Do not chase the rise: The KDJ indicator is at a high level, and the current price of 3,223 is very close to the upper resistance level. Opening a position now means the risk-to-reward ratio is less than 1:1, which is inconsistent with the principle of high efficiency.
2. Monitor volume: If the price exceeds 3,264 with trading volume, consider entering on a retest rather than immediate breakout.
Logic for supporting short selling (Why consider selling now?)
1. Clear resistance level: 3,263.78 is a short-term clear peak. If the price attempts to break through again and fails, it will form a double top pattern.
2. Overbought condition: The J value of the daily KDJ indicator has exceeded 100, indicating that market sentiment is very enthusiastic, and a technical correction may occur to fix the large divergence.
3. Momentum decline: On the 15-minute and 1-hour charts, the red MACD bars are shrinking, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening.

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SunnyOk

2026-01-06 05:40:30

Currently leaning towards shorting, summarized with two plans and analysis logic.
Plan 1: High-level interception (left-side trading - highest efficiency, minimal stop loss)
• Entry point: Wait for the price to surge again to the $3,260 - $3,275 range (near previous high and upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands).
• Stop loss: $3,290.
• Reason: If it breaks through $3,290, it indicates that the upward space on the daily chart is open, and short positions must be exited immediately to stop loss.
• First target: $3,180 (middle band of the 1-hour Bollinger Bands).
• Second target: $3,120 (lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands).
Plan 2: Break confirmation (right-side trading - most stable)
• Entry point: Wait for the 15-minute K-line to break below and close under $3,210 (i.e., break short-term support).
• Stop loss: $3,240 (hold if it rebounds but does not break).
• Target: $3,130 - $3,150 area.

Shorting taboos (must pay attention)
1. Strictly prohibit "holding through": The current major trend is upward; shorting is only to eat the retracement. If the price forcibly breaks through $3,300, it indicates the market is entering an accelerated upward phase, and absolutely no holding of short positions.
2. Step-by-step profit-taking: Since it is against the trend, when the price falls to a support level (such as $3,180), reduce positions or move the stop loss to the entry point to ensure principal safety.
3. Observe volume: If the price hovers around $3,260 but does not decline, and trading volume shrinks, this often signals a buildup for another rally. At this time, short positions should be withdrawn.

Order placement logic analysis:

1. Market trend in-depth analysis
Ethereum is currently in a strong upward trend but faces short-term overbought correction pressure:
1. Daily level: The price is in a large rebound channel, currently touching the upper band of Bollinger Bands (around 3281). The J value in the KDJ indicator has already broken 100 (101.95), indicating a serious overbought state. This means that although the trend is bullish, chasing high at the current price has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio.
2. 4-hour level: Typical bullish arrangement. The price runs along the upper Bollinger Band, with MACD showing a golden cross with increasing volume. The key point is the recent high at 3,263.78; if it cannot break through with volume, it may form a short-term "double top" or high-level consolidation.
3. 1-hour/15-minute levels: Volatility begins to converge, and Bollinger Bands are flattening. This is often a sign of a trend reversal. On the 1-hour chart, MACD shows shrinking red bars, indicating weakening short-term upward momentum.
Strong resistance level: 3264-3300, previous high pressure + integer level + daily Bollinger upper band
First support level: 3180-3200, middle bands of 1-hour and 4-hour Bollinger Bands, with psychological support
Strong support level: 3120-3130, lower band of 4-hour Bollinger Bands ➕15-minute previous low
1. Do not chase highs: Currently, KDJ is at a high level; the current price of 3,223 is very close to the upper resistance. Opening a position now results in a risk-reward ratio less than 1:1, which does not meet high-efficiency principles.
2. Watch for volume increase: If the price breaks through 3,264 with volume, consider entering on a pullback rather than chasing at the moment of breakout.
Supporting shorting logic (why consider short now?)
1. Clear resistance: 3,263.78 is a short-term clear high point. If the price attempts to break this level again and fails, it will form a "double top" structure.
2. Serious overbought: The J value in the daily KDJ exceeds 100, indicating market overheating, and a technical correction may occur at any time to fix excessive divergence.
3. Momentum weakening: On the 15-minute and 1-hour charts, MACD red bars are shrinking, indicating the bullish momentum is weakening.
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