Cardano(ADA), consecutive bullish signals… On-chain data also indicates a 'buying sentiment'

Recently, Cardano(ADA) has been showing a noticeable upward trend. Over the past week, it rebounded approximately 15%, trading around $0.41. What’s noteworthy is that signals are being observed indicating a recovery not only in technical terms but also in overall market sentiment.

Signals of Psychological Reversal: Simultaneous Recovery of Whales and Market Sentiment

An interesting point is that the price increase reflects a genuine change in market participants’ attitudes rather than a simple rebound. On-chain data shows that the buying order concentration of whale-level investors has significantly increased. This is typically interpreted as a pattern seen during accumulation phases when ‘smart money’ flows in at the bottom.

An even more important signal is the revival of momentum in the derivatives market. The funding rate indicator has shifted from negative to positive, recording 0.0074% as of Thursday, indicating that bullish expectations are beginning to overpower bearish sentiment. Long position holders are willing to pay premiums to short position holders, suggesting strong buying psychology. Historical data shows that when ADA’s funding rate hits such a turning point, short-term rallies often follow.

From On-Chain Accumulation to Technical Breakthrough: What’s Next?

On the technical chart, Cardano has broken through a significant resistance level. It successfully broke the lower boundary of a Falling Wedge pattern and has maintained a continuous upward trend since then. The RSI indicator has recovered from oversold levels to around 34, and the MACD has formed a golden cross, signaling a technical buy.

The future movement can be envisioned in two scenarios:

Bullish Scenario: If the current bullish momentum continues, the first resistance at around $0.49 will be tested. A clear breakout above this level on a closing basis could open up room for an increase toward the 50-day EMA at $0.56(. If on-chain indicators remain strong during this process, retesting $0.50 seems quite feasible.

Bearish Scenario: If the overall market undergoes a significant correction, the $0.39 level is expected to serve as the last line of defense. Whether this support holds will be a key criterion for short-term traders to decide on stop-losses and re-entries.

Currently, both on-chain sentiment and technical signals point toward a positive outlook. The main focus moving forward will be how long the market can sustain this momentum.