Will the price of aluminum per kg in 2025 continue to rise at this rate?

Over the past year, the aluminum market has experienced an astonishing rise. Starting from $2,179 in February 2024, aluminum prices increased to $2,655 by February 2025, representing an approximate 21.84% growth rate. Currently, aluminum serves not just as a raw material but also as a barometer for reading global economic trends.

How High Will Aluminum Go in 2025?

The outlook for aluminum prices this year is optimistic. Changes in U.S. tariff policies and the reorganization of global supply chains are creating upward momentum in the aluminum market.

According to analyses from professional institutions, aluminum in 2025 is expected to reach between $2,500 and $3,000 per ton. Considering the current price of $2,611.8, this is a quite realistic forecast. However, such an upward trajectory is expected to involve significant volatility.

Looking at the monthly trends over the past year:

• March–April 2024: +12.11% increase driven by AI boom and infrastructure investments
• June–July 2024: -5.93% decline due to global economic slowdown and Chinese real estate downturn
• October 2024: Recovery phase, reaching a yearly high of $2,595

Despite this volatility, the medium- to long-term trend for aluminum is clearly upward.

Factors Influencing Aluminum Prices

Understanding various variables is essential to reading the aluminum market.

First, trade policies. Changes in tariff policies by major countries directly impact aluminum prices. Imposing tariffs on low-cost imports is reshaping the global aluminum supply structure.

Geopolitical risks cannot be ignored. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has constrained aluminum supply, exerting upward pressure on prices.

Industrial demand shifts are also crucial. The expansion of the electric vehicle industry, AI infrastructure investments, and aerospace sectors continue to increase demand for aluminum.

Lastly, energy costs are vital. Aluminum production requires massive amounts of electricity, so fluctuations in energy prices directly affect production costs.

How to Approach Aluminum Investment

Physical purchase is no longer a viable option. If individual investors buy 1 ton of aluminum physically, they face substantial additional costs such as storage and transportation fees.

The solution is CFD (Contract for Difference) trading. Through CFDs, investors can profit from price movements without owning the physical commodity.

The biggest advantage of CFDs is that they allow profit generation in both rising and falling markets. If you expect aluminum prices to rise, you can open a long position; if you expect a decline, you can open a short position.

Leverage can also enhance efficiency. Using 1:10 leverage, a trader can control a position worth $2,655 with just $265. However, leverage is a double-edged sword, increasing the potential for losses as well.

Key Strategies for Aluminum Trading

Three principles for successful aluminum trading:

1. Fundamental Analysis – Continuously monitor global economic trends, trade policies, and industrial demand.
2. Technical Analysis – Use monthly price trends and indicators to determine entry and exit points.
3. Risk Management – Use leverage within your risk tolerance and set appropriate stop-loss orders.

While the current aluminum market shows an upward trend, it still maintains high volatility. Looking ahead to March 2025, there is potential for further gains, so thorough analysis and preparation are recommended before entering the market.

To start trading aluminum, choose a reliable trading platform that supports CFD trading. Ensure it offers an easy-to-use interface, various technical indicators, and real-time market information before opening an account.