#比特币 BTC Year-End Closing, Is the Four-Year Cycle Broken?

2025 has officially ended, and Bitcoin has perfectly marked the last second of its yearly candle.
Bitcoin closed 2025 with a price below the start of the year, marking the first time in history that it experienced a yearly decline one year after the halving. This has sparked intense discussions in the market about whether the "Bitcoin four-year cycle" has come to an end. Although the latest halving occurred in April 2024, BTC previously hit a historical high of $126,000 on October 6, but then experienced a significant correction, currently down over 30% from the high, with the year's performance weakening.
Analysts point out that after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin reached new highs in the following year, but this pattern has not continued in this cycle. Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, bluntly states that Bitcoin's decline in the year following the halving means the "four-year cycle is officially dead."
Investor Armando Pantoja believes that the addition of ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheets has shifted Bitcoin away from retail sentiment dominance, making it more influenced by macro factors such as liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitical issues. However, there are differing opinions. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, says the four-year cycle still exists but is no longer driven solely by "programmatic halving," instead unfolding in a new form.
Disagreements over Bitcoin's long-term cycle structure continue to grow. 2011: 🟢 +1,473%
2012: 🟢 +186%
2013: 🟢 +5,428%
2014: 🔴 -58%
2015: 🟢 +35%
2016: 🟢 +124%
2017: 🟢 +1,369%
2018: 🔴 -74%
2019: 🟢 +92%
2020: 🟢 +303%
2021: 🟢 +60%
2022: 🔴 -64%
2023: 🟢 +155%
2024: 🟢 +121%
2025: 🔴 -5%
2026: ❓
At this moment, let's not focus on minute or hourly charts, but start from the larger-scale yearly K-line. What patterns do you see? Is volatility decreasing? Is the historical pattern of the four-year cycle shifting? (Personally, I believe it will be broken, and future fluctuations will follow more economic cycle patterns.)
How will this year's candlestick chart develop? No one can give a definitive answer, so let's all participate and draw the K-line ourselves. On the first day of the new year, I wish everyone more Bitcoin holdings, closer to financial freedom, and wealth beyond imagination!!!