#加密行情预测

When "everyone is bearish" becomes a consensus, the risk may be quietly shifting

The biggest characteristic of the current market is not the decline itself, but the highly unified bearish sentiment. From historical experience, whether in traditional markets or crypto markets, when "pessimism" becomes the mainstream narrative, the risk is often not in the decline itself, but in the fact that it has already been sold off.

But it is important to emphasize: reversal ≠ immediate rise. Analysis indicates that this cycle has just entered a correction phase since early November, and the time dimension does not support the optimistic expectation of a "V-shaped rebound." This means the market may go through a period of emotional depression but without rapid breakdown in prices.

Therefore, I lean towards an intermediate judgment: now may not be the stage for "blindly bottom-fishing," but it is no longer suitable to view the market with extreme pessimism. The most common mistake in a bear market is not buying too early, but selling future opportunities along with extreme pessimism.

My personal trading approach is: avoid chasing rallies, avoid betting on reversals, and only test key support areas in batches, control positions, and give time rather than emotions to draw conclusions.