Frankly speaking, if the gains in gold and silver exceed those of speculative assets, isn't that a form of inversion?

The long-term US Treasury yields are lower than the short-term yields, which is an inversion.
If the gains in gold and silver surpass those of speculative assets, isn't that an inversion?

The reason for the long-term US Treasury yields being lower than the short-term ones is that the market has recession expectations, leading to large-scale purchases of US Treasuries, with more being bought for longer maturities, causing long-term yields to be lower than short-term yields.

However, this premise assumes that the market still has confidence in US Treasuries.

But when international markets also lose confidence in the US economy, they may choose safe-haven assets that are not even the Japanese Yen, but gold and silver.

Therefore, when gold and silver gains even surpass those of speculative assets, isn't that a more serious inversion?

Before the US releases various economic data in December, the CME's interest rate futures show that the market expects a rate cut in April.

After the CPI data is released, market expectations shift to a rate cut in March.

Following the Q3 GDP growth rate announcement, expectations move again to a rate cut in June.

By the end of the month, with almost no major data releases or significant speeches, market expectations revert to a rate cut in April.

This may be the market's anticipation of a recession.