From Betting on Trump to Betting on the NFL: Prediction Markets Set to Break Records in 2025

In 2025, prediction markets are expected to reach a peak, with Polymarket and Kalshi emerging as industry leaders, attracting significant investments and media attention. As the 2026 US midterm elections approach, the value of these platforms will be tested, with the key question being whether they can develop into scalable prediction infrastructure.

BlockBeats reports that December 26, 2025, will mark the hottest year in the history of prediction market development. With Polymarket and Kalshi rising to become top platforms in the industry, the sector is experiencing a comprehensive surge in investment scale, media exposure, and valuation, gradually moving into mainstream visibility. As the 2026 US midterm elections near, prediction markets are viewed as a crucial scenario that could replicate the trading frenzy of the 2024 presidential election.

The core issue in market attention is whether these platforms can evolve from "traffic and topic-driven" to scalable prediction infrastructure. Capital is accelerating into the space, with valuations rising rapidly:

Kalshi: Completed a $1 billion funding round in November, with a valuation of $11 billion, led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG; previously, in October, it completed a $300 million Series D funding round, valuing the company at $5 billion.

Polymarket: The New York Stock Exchange parent company ICE invested $2 billion, and CEO Shayne Coplan disclosed that the company's valuation is approximately $9 billion.

Analysts point out that the core value of prediction markets lies not in short-term revenue but in collective intelligence and globally distributed prediction data. Leo Chan, CEO of Sportstensor, states that such data is highly valuable for financial institutions and non-trading users alike.

During the 2024 US election, prediction market trading volume surged. According to Chainalysis, a major French Polymarket trader profited $78.7 million by betting on Trump’s victory.

Entering 2025, the two major platforms are accelerating business collaborations: Kalshi has partnered with CNBC and CNN; Polymarket has teamed up with Yahoo Finance, UFC, and NHL, signing multi-year licensing agreements with both platforms.

As the midterm elections approach, prediction markets are expected to usher in a new wave of explosive growth. However, the market consensus is that 2026 will be a watershed year to test the long-term value of prediction markets: whether they can truly demonstrate their unique roles in information discovery, risk pricing, and decision support will determine whether this sector moves from a hype to maturity.