Today(12.26) Core conclusion: BTC remains in a range of 85,000-90,000 USDT(, with ETH showing slight weakness. Due to low holiday liquidity and options expiration, leverage and positions are being strictly controlled. Watch and take light or short-term positions.

1. Key Market Overview (as of 21:20, Beijing Time)

- BTC: approximately 87,600 USDT, down 0.8% in 24h; range 85,000-90,000, support at 84,000-85,000, resistance at 90,000, price below the 20-day moving average)88,931(.
- ETH: approximately 2,920 USDT, down 0.5% in 24h; support at 2,880-2,900, resistance at 2,970-3,000, short-term lacks clear direction.
- Other mainstream coins: BCH)+4.28%(, AVAX)+1.47%( showing slight strength; DOGE)-2.08%(, ADA)-2.03%( showing weakness.
- Market sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 23 (Extreme Fear), ETF funds continue to flow out, with $175 million exiting on 12.24 alone.

2. Key Events and Risks

1. BTC/USD Flash Crash: On 12.24, Binance BTC/USD trading pair briefly dropped to 24,100 before bouncing back, caused by liquidity exhaustion of USD stablecoins and holiday low activity. Only leveraged positions were affected; spot holdings remained mostly unaffected. Total liquidation on the network was $136 million.
2. Large Options Expiry: About $23 billion worth of BTC options expire today, which may trigger short-term volatility. Pay attention to the battle around 88,000.
3. Platform Updates: Binance will support FXS upgrade to FRAX, stopping FXS/USDT trading on 2026.1.13, and opening FRAX/USDT on 1.15; Bitget has delisted 12 spot trading pairs today, so please handle orders in advance.

3. Technical and Trading Recommendations

- Technical: BTC’s long lower shadow on the 4-hour chart indicates support, but overall resistance remains; ETH’s rebound is weak, so wait for better entry points.
- Short-term Strategy:
- BTC: Light short positions around 88,300, with stop-loss at 88,800, take profit at 86,500 (risk-reward ratio about 3.6); reduce positions if below 84,000, and if it stabilizes above 90,000 with increased volume, consider small long positions.
- ETH: Wait and see, wait for a breakout above 2,970 or a drop below 2,880 before acting, to avoid low risk-reward trades.
- Risk Management: Due to poor holiday liquidity, prone to flash crashes; leverage ≤3x, spot positions ≤50%, strict stop-loss, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling.

4. Market Outlook

In the short term, expect continued oscillation between 85,000 and 90,000. The probability of breaking above 95,000 or below 80,000 before the end of the year is less than 20%. In the medium term, macro liquidity, ETF fund inflows, and regulatory policies will influence the trend, with potential directional choices early next year.