Core Situation Evaluation: Is this "Building a Foundation" or "Downward Correction"?

• Short-term support confirmation: ETH rebounded after a decline around $2,962, indicating strong long position buying and short position closing in that area.
• Indicator correction request: KDJ 15-minute/1-hour is in oversold low position. Technically, a rebound upward is needed to digest the deviation from the sharp decline early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound and not reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels remain bearish. Therefore, the next strategy is: take a sell position at high levels > take a short-term buy position at support levels.
Repeatedly dropping high positions (main strategy, following the medium-term trend)
The next ideal second empty point will be slightly lower:
• First pressure zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (1-hour Bollinger middle line).
• Second pressure zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the morning decline point).
• If the price rebounds around $3,025 and a shadow appears above, you can re-enter a short position (position size can be set to 1/2 of the previous).
• Stop loss: Placed at $3,075 (must stop loss before breaking previous high).
• Take profit: Reconsider the liquidation zone around $2,950.
3. Risks/Opportunities before Christmas
• 24-hour risk: If it drops below $2,950, it will trigger liquidation of buy positions worth $850 million as previously calculated. At that time, the market will experience a vertical decline, directly heading to $2,880.
• Christmas market: Historically, the night before Christmas (23-24) often exhibits "short trapping" behavior before rising afterward.
Core observation: Looking for the "golden hole"
Liquidity hunt (supplement pin with high win rate)
• Extreme entry points: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense Liquidation Area: $2,950, as previously mentioned, is only the first line of defense. The last defense line and dense liquidation area for true Bulls are around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily support level: Refers to daily candlestick K, the lower Bollinger band is currently extending upward, around $2,880 forming strong support.
• Operation suggestion: Do not place orders immediately, but wait for the price to quickly break below $2,950, and when it reaches around $2,900 with decreasing volume, even with a long lower wick during 15 minutes, enter the market at market price.
• Stop loss: $2,840 (if it drops below the previous low, then the Christmas movement is essentially over).
• Target: reconsider $3,050.
Confirmation of reversal (safe to add positions on the right side)
• Entry level confirmation: $3,035 - $3,045 (after stabilization)
• Logic: * Break resistance: The initial decline point is at $3,060. If the price can return to $3,030 and hold on the 1-hour level, it means the decline is a "bear trap (Bear Trap)" entirely.
• Christmas movement begins: Standing firm here usually indicates that the Christmas movement officially starts, with an immediate target of $3,300.
• Stop loss: $2,990.
• Price target: $3,200 - $3,350.
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