Are Bitcoin's rallies losing strength? Analysts point to supply risks as Ether strengthens.

Source: Yellow Original Title: Are Bitcoin's rallies losing momentum? Analysts point to supply risks as Ether gains ground.

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Market structure defined by supply

Bitcoin and Ether are approaching the end of the year facing a market structure defined less by momentum and more by supply, while analysts warn that Bitcoin's rebounds remain constrained by strong overhead selling pressure, while Ether shows early signs of stabilization.

Analysts from an analytics platform highlighted that Bitcoin's rebound from the low zone of 80,000 dollars has encountered a dense supply zone formed by investors who accumulated between approximately 94,000 and 120,000 dollars.

They said that this concentration of positions has created an unbalanced structure at the top, where rallies repeatedly encounter selling pressure.

The pattern resembles the early phases of a bear market seen in past cycles, where recovery attempts failed to gain sustained traction.

Bitcoin faces a supply ceiling

Downside risks remain high while Bitcoin trades below this upper range and does not recover key structural levels, particularly the cost basis of short-term holders near $100,589.

On-chain data shows that the supply held at a loss has risen to about 6.7 million bitcoins on a seven-day average, the highest level recorded in the current cycle.

The persistence of this indicator since mid-November reflects transitional periods observed at the beginning of previous bear markets.

However, there are also aspects that differentiate the current cycle. Since the introduction of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, similar configurations in August 2024 and April 2025 were ultimately resolved upwards and led to new all-time highs.

The next phase will depend on whether the new demand can absorb the higher supply that now dominates the recoveries.

Ether shows signs of stabilization

An independent technical perspective presents a more neutral short-term outlook for both assets.

Bitcoin remains above a key cloud-based support near $80,600, which defines its cyclical bullish trend, and short-term indicators point to an oversold bounce that could test resistance near the 50-day moving average around $92,700.

The medium-term bias has improved to neutral, but there is a warning that a monthly sell signal could pressure Bitcoin in the first half of 2026, with downside risk towards $70,000 if weakness resumes.

In the case of Ether, the stabilization above the support close to 2,750 dollars was emphasized, supported by the improvement in momentum indicators.

A break above 3,100 dollars would reinforce the scenario of a corrective minimum and open the way upward towards the 200-day moving average near 3,570 dollars.