VanEck says that the fall of Bitcoin's hashrate indicates a bullish scenario for the 2026 rally

Source: Yellow Original Title: VanEck says that the drop in Bitcoin's hashrate signals a bullish scenario for the 2026 rally

Original Link: VanEck identified the decline in Bitcoin's hashrate as a contrary bullish signal in its report on Monday, citing historical patterns where miner capitulation preceded price recoveries.

The Bitcoin network's hashrate fell by 4% until December 15, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2024.

The asset manager pointed out that similar periods have historically led to positive returns for long-term holders.

Bitcoin was trading around 87,900 dollars on Monday after falling approximately to 81,000 dollars on November 21 from its all-time high of 126,080 dollars recorded a month earlier.

What happened

The VanEck report found that 90-day returns were positive 65% of the time when the network hashrate decreased, compared to 54% when the hashrate increased.

The report indicated that when the hashrate compression persists for longer periods, positive future yields tend to occur with greater frequency and magnitude.

The profitability of mining deteriorated sharply, as the breakeven electricity costs for Antminer S19 XP equipment fell from approximately $0.12 per kilowatt-hour at the end of 2024 to around $0.077 by mid-December 2025.

The decline reflects a worsening of the economy for miners, forcing operators with higher costs to shut down equipment or leave the network.

VanEck estimated that the closures in the Chinese region of Xinjiang may have removed approximately 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity, which could have been redirected towards artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Meanwhile, institutional buying has deviated significantly from retail behavior.

Digital asset treasuries added approximately 42,000 Bitcoin between mid-November and mid-December, marking their largest monthly accumulation since July 2025.

The strategy explained most of the purchases, taking advantage of its ability to issue common stock while its market-to-net asset value ratio remained above 1.0.

Holdings in Bitcoin exchange-traded products decreased by 120 basis points month over month to 1.308 million Bitcoin.

Why it matters

The drop in hashrate indicates miners' capitulation, where operators with financial issues abandon the network during periods of compressed profitability.

VanEck described this as historically bullish for patient investors willing to accumulate during periods of stress in the industry.

The report highlighted a divergence in which medium-term holders reduced their exposure while long-term holders largely remained unchanged.

A decreasing hashrate usually indicates that only the most efficient miners, with access to cheaper electricity, can operate profitably.

This dynamic usually marks cyclical bottoms, as weaker participants exit and the network difficulty adjusts downward.

Bitcoin fell by approximately 22% in the last three months, marking its worst fourth quarter since 2018.

VanEck analysts stated that the improvement in liquidity conditions and the reduction of speculative leverage suggest that the market is undergoing a structural recalibration rather than lasting damage.

The firm presented 2026 as the possible horizon in which the current stress of miners and institutional accumulation could translate into better price performance.