Bitcoin Year-End Test: AI Predictions on Santa Claus Rebound

2025-12-23 01:37:12

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Source: Yellow Original Title: The end-of-year test of Bitcoin: what AI predictions say about a Santa rally

Original Link: Bitcoin (BTC) traded within a relatively narrow range on Monday, fluctuating above $87,000 to $88,000, showing early signs of stability, although the overall momentum over the past few weeks remains bearish.

As the calendar approaches the end of the year, a familiar seasonal question arises among traders: Can Bitcoin achieve a Santa Claus rally before the end of 2025?

To measure the probability of a rebound at the end of December, we asked three large AI models — ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini — to analyze Bitcoin's recent price action, historical seasonality, and overall market conditions.

Santa Claus Rebound and Low Liquidity

In traditional stock markets, the Santa Claus Rally refers to the gains made during the last few trading days of December and the first trading day of January.

Although Bitcoin trades continuously, market participants often apply this concept to the time window at the end of December and the beginning of January, when reduced liquidity may amplify price volatility.

The three AI models are basically consistent in the following aspects: there will be significant fluctuations until 2025.

Bitcoin experienced a sharp rise and a long consolidation phase, reaching a new high at the beginning of the year, and then entering a period of continuous adjustment in the fourth quarter.

The disagreement lies in how much potential there is for further upside (if any).

Gemini sees a higher probability of rebound

Gemini provides the most constructive perspective.

It describes this year as one that started under pressure, reached historical highs in the middle of the year, and significantly cooled down in the fourth quarter.

After surpassing $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin fell to a low of $80,000 and then stabilized around $85,000 to $90,000 in anticipation of the end of December.

The model sets the probability of Santa Claus rally at about 55%, defined as breaking through $95,000.

However, Gemini does not expect to return to historical highs before the end of the year, but instead points out potential short-term relief actions that may be driven by sentiment and positioning.

Grok and ChatGPT require caution

Grok has taken a more restrained view, emphasizing mild volatility, year-end ETF outflows, and the distance of Bitcoin from its October high.

Although recent price action indicates stability, Grok describes the market as being in a consolidation phase rather than preparing for a breakout.

It sets the probability of a significant Santa Claus rally between 30% and 40%, citing the mixed historical performance of December outside of a strong bull market.

ChatGPT's assessment lies between the two. It presents 2025 as a year of repeated progress followed by a long digestion phase.

Bitcoin is still about 29% lower than its peak in October, with the derivatives market maintaining a defensive posture. ChatGPT estimates the probability of a Santa Claus rally at around 45%, defined as Bitcoin ending the holiday period at a higher price than it started.

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ruggedSoBadLMAO

· 22h ago

87k-88k is narrow and dull, I don't believe AI predictions about this... Santa Claus rebound? That's funny, isn't it? This year's end wave is just the usual routine. --- The seasonal rebound explanation again, I've heard it every year and it's getting old. --- If AI predictions were that accurate, I would have gotten rich long ago. Why am I still working here? --- Let's wait and see. Anyway, there's no way to run now. --- A Santa Claus rebound sounds like a fairy tale. How could reality be that sweet?

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BrokenYield

· 12-23 02:07

nah, the santa rally cope is peak delusion season. ai models trained on survivorship bias aren't gonna predict what institutions won't let happen. 87-88k range? that's just capitulation before the real dump hits.

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tokenomics_truther

· 12-23 02:04

Is AI going to trick us into a year-end rebound again? Wake up, everyone --- How long has this 87k-88k range been stuck... Santa Claus might be trapped --- Asking AI for predictions is not as good as checking how much is left in your wallet, haha --- Every year we talk about a Christmas rebound, but what happens? --- Looking at AI predictions is not as good as looking at chart trends; at least the charts won't lie --- As the year-end approaches, the voices eager for Market Stabilization are getting louder. So interesting --- By the way, who can save this round of falling? Is there really someone who believes in AI's method? --- With such strong pressure at 88k, a rebound can only happen if this level is broken first.

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UnruggableChad

· 12-23 01:54

Santa Claus Rebound? Haha, can this AI prediction be reliable this time... Don't believe anything AI says, you still have to rely on on-chain data to speak. 87k has been stuck for so long, it's either going to break out or To da moon, just waiting for that moment. The seasonal rebound thing... just listen and that's it, don't take it seriously. Three AIs all say rebound? Then I'm a bit worried... Is there pressure above 88k? If it can't break through, it still has to fall. Whether this round can reach the end of the year... it still depends on how institutions play.

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TradFiRefugee

· 12-23 01:54

The 88k resistance level really hasn't broken, no matter how fancy the AI predictions are, it still has to rely on on-chain data to speak for itself. Christmas rebound? Uh... I choose to trust my Wallet instead of the model. 😅 It's the end of the year and we're still fluctuating between 87-88, is this what they call "stability"? It doesn't look very stable to me. I feel like Santa might be taking it easy this year, let's talk again next year. AI predictions are all hindsight analysis, the real money-makers have long been All in or All out.

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GateUser-1a2ed0b9

· 12-23 01:52

Predicting Santa Claus Rebound with AI? This trap happens every year, do you really believe it? --- How long has it been in the 87k-88k range, just waiting for the Christmas wave? I think it’s unlikely. --- Here comes the seasonal talk again... why didn’t we see a rebound at this time last year? --- Three AI models are competing, whoever believes will lose. --- The end of the year test is really about who can buy the dip without getting trapped, right? --- Every day people talk about stability, but I see the market is stable enough to fall asleep. --- The Santa Claus rebound is just a psychological suggestion, those buying just want to find an excuse. --- The price at 87k has already been set, the probability of a rebound... I bet on the reverse. --- AI prediction? Well, looking at on-chain data feels more solid.

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GasGuzzler

· 12-23 01:49

Hmm, the AI predictions are here again, every time hyping up the Christmas Rebound, and what’s the result? Wait, is it stable from 87000 to 88000? Why don’t I believe it? Is it true or not, can it really turn around by the end of the year? I don't think so. I only believe half of what the AI says, the other half is based on stubbornness. I’m tired of this seasonal talk, I just want to see real actions.

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