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Ethereum has been fluctuating around 3030, with the MACD forming a golden cross pattern, and various technical indicators seem to be releasing buy signals. It looks like quite a few people are itching to jump in and make some profits. But here I have to sound a warning — behind the beautiful technical charts, there is a high possibility that it is a trap carefully set by market makers. Blindly rushing in can easily lead to becoming a catch a falling knife.
From a macro perspective, the situation is actually not optimistic. The Federal Reserve's recent stance has been tough, with FOMC members clearly stating that interest rates will be maintained until spring, and inflationary pressures still exist. This directly implies that expectations for interest rate cuts will be pushed back, and the high interest rate environment will continue. For risk assets like Ethereum, this undoubtedly constitutes mid-term pressure. Although short-term fluctuations attract attention, the overall environment cannot support a surge in prices.
Let's take a look at the technical details. On the 1-hour chart, the MACD has indeed formed a golden cross pattern, but the energy bars are clearly weakening, indicating that the upward momentum is severely lacking, and it’s just the market sentiment holding it up. The 3100 level poses significant pressure, and without substantial positive news, it will be difficult to break through. To make matters worse, the indicators are conflicting—there may be short-term upward potential, but the daily and weekly charts are signaling to sell, with the long-term trend clearly pointing downwards.
The performance of the capital side is more straightforward. On the 1-hour level, there has been a net outflow of funds, and in the past 10 days, it has been a significant outflow. This pattern is all too familiar: the market makers quietly leave during the upward movement, while retail investors rush in eagerly.
From a technical perspective, it is difficult for Ethereum to maintain above 3050. If a rebound occurs, the range from 3080 to 3100 is likely to be a selling point. Once it falls below 3000, the risk will be further released.
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Net capital outflow still chasing? Wake up everyone, this is the scene of catching the bag
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If 3100 can't be broken, don't dream about it, the macro environment is right there
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The most dangerous time is when indicators are conflicting. I have already reduced my positions, everyone keep going
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Before spring, interest rates stay unchanged. How can ETH rise?
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It's always like this. After a beautiful candlestick, there's a big plunge, another wave of retail investors getting chopped
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Many people haven't noticed the energy bar depletion in this detail, no wonder they keep getting cut
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When rebounding to 3100, it's time to run, don't be greedy
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The signs of main players leaving this round are too obvious, retail investors going in are just stepping on toes
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The funds are all fleeing, and you still want to chase? Just wait to be caught by the Large Investors.
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The interest rate cuts in spring are nowhere in sight; buying at a high position is pure suicide.
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If it can't break 3100, don't waste your efforts, everyone.
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With the Fed's attitude, how could it possibly rise?
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It's most dangerous when indicators clash; I've already reduced my position.
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The golden cross pattern looks nice, but behind the scenes, the market makers have slipped away, and retail investors rushing in will get trapped.
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If the energy bars are exhausted and you still want to trade, you deserve to be played for suckers.
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With this outflow of funds combined with technical analysis, breaking below 3000 is a high probability event.
When BTC doesn't move, how can small coins rise? This logic doesn't make sense.
With net capital outflow, there are still people daring to buy the dip; that's really bold.
If 3100 can't hold, that's a signal; don't gamble, brother.
The Fed isn't budging, so this market can't strengthen; just wait and see.
Indicators fighting each other is the most annoying; during times like this, it's best to hold a short position and lie flat.
Sell at 3080-3100, remember, close all positions on a rebound.
I just want to ask, how many people rushed in looking at the golden cross pattern?
With the energy bars exhausted, you're still chasing rising prices; isn't that giving away money?
If it falls below 3000, it's over; then you'll have to cut loss again, it's always like this.
The market makers are already profiting while the funds are still flowing out, and retail investors are still dreaming.
If 3100 can't be broken, then stop messing around, seriously.
Wait, are you trying to get me to enter a position again?