Is the golden year-end pump season here? 50 years of data speaks, this signal is crucial.

[Coin World] There has been an interesting phenomenon in the commodity market recently. Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at the globally renowned brokerage StoneX, pointed out that since hitting bottom in October, the rise of gold has been strongly supported by seasonal factors. With the trading volume shrinking towards the end of the year, this wave of increase is unlikely to be broken in the short term, unless significant new variables emerge or investors realize large-scale profits.

What does the data say? The historical records of the past half century are quite revealing. The average return rate for gold in December is 1.1%, with a rise probability of 52%. But there is a detail worth noting—during those months of increase, the average positive return rate can actually reach 4.78%. In other words, once December strengthens, the intensity is often not to be underestimated. The logic behind this is clear: during the period around Christmas and the end of the year, although overall trading activity decreases, the enthusiasm of the bulls tends to be even higher.

Simpson believes that there is currently no sign of a peak in gold prices. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has just entered the overbought territory, which is normal in a healthy uptrend and does not necessarily indicate a correction. Caution is necessary for gold bulls, but from a technical perspective, there is still upward space. Especially if a pullback occurs, it is likely to encounter a wave of buying on dips.