Market analysis for 12/22

Currently, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a technical recovery after the macro negative sentiment has mostly dissipated, compounded by a tightening of liquidity at the end of the year. The latest policy signals from the Federal Reserve continue to show widening discrepancies, with hawkish voices being reinforced, completely extinguishing the market's fantasy of a shift towards easing monetary policy in the short term. The trend is transitioning from high-level fluctuations to a choice of direction, and the rebound from Sunday to today has not broken through the original range, which is not a signal of a trend reversal. The core short-term competition focuses on the showdown between technical rebound momentum and expectations of tightening macro liquidity.

After digesting the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike over the weekend, Bitcoin has built a new oscillation platform in the range of 87500-89600. This morning, after attempting to break through the key resistance at 89600 and failing, it has retreated. The short-term direction will depend on the outcome of the price's breakthrough of the range boundaries.

After consolidating in the 2960-3000 range over the weekend, Yitai successfully broke through the upper edge of this range yesterday afternoon, reaching a high of around 3010. It then made a healthy pullback to confirm support, ultimately completing a significant surge this morning, with a high of around 3060. Technically, it presents a positive structure of "consolidation - breakout - pullback confirmation - continued upward movement."

The market is currently in a critical pressure test period dominated by external tightening expectations. The accumulation of long-term funds has built a potential "moat" for the market, but the short-term direction is still dominated by macro policy variables. In the short term, the market has escaped the panic mode of unilateral decline but has not yet entered a trend of rising. The approach should shift from "risk aversion" thinking to "oscillating market speculation" thinking, as the market is using this calm period for self-repair $BTC #巨鲸动向 .