#比特币市场周期与价格 Seeing Eric Balchunas's remarks really hit on many people's doubts. When Bitcoin falls, it is compared to the tulip bubble; to be honest, this analogy is too superficial.

The key difference lies in resilience. Tulips were just a wave of hot money coming in and out, wrapping up in three years, and no one mentioned them again. However, Bitcoin has gone through 17 years, experiencing 6-7 rounds of cliff-like falls, and each time it manages to reach new highs — this itself indicates a fundamental difference in the nature of the issue. Last year's increase of 122% was indeed excessive, and this year’s pullback is quite normal, but this is not the bursting of a bubble; this is cyclical fluctuation.

My experience over the years of following the market is that finding opportunities within cycles is much more reliable than predicting direction. Some experts make a living off this—ambushing during panic periods and unloading during rebounds. Instead of getting tangled up in whether Bitcoin is a bubble, it’s better to look at what changes in the structure of holders behind the long-term average annualized 50% figure. Institutional entry, expansion of spot ETFs, reallocation of risk assets—these are the factors that will determine the ceiling of the next cycle.

If there are skilled traders building positions against the trend in the bottom area with signals, it is worth observing. The premise is to clearly understand the other party's risk tolerance and position management logic.