Trump has locked in four candidates for the new chairman of the Fed, with the most popular, Hockett, having a poll support rate of 56%. The core demand is very straightforward — a strong support for significant rate cuts, bringing the interest rate target below 1%.

Among these four candidates, Haskett, Walsh, and Waller belong to the dovish camp, and Riedel has also made it into the final selection circle. From Trump's recent moves, it is clear that he intends to push the Fed to "open the floodgates." Recently, Haskett even described the CPI data as "explosively good"; if he successfully takes office, the probability of a return to a loose monetary policy will significantly increase.

But things are not that simple. The New York Fed recently signaled that CPI data may have been underestimated, and there are still internal differences regarding the pace of interest rate cuts. Currently, the market's expectation for a rate cut in December is still less than 30%, and the overall sentiment is still in a wait-and-see state.

From the reaction of the cryptocurrency circle, it has already paid the price. Bitcoin has dropped over 30% from its historical high, with 220,000 liquidations across the network, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies has evaporated by 1.2 trillion. Essentially, this round of declines is a gamble by the market on the expectation of interest rate cuts.

Conversely, if Trump's team really takes office and promotes substantial interest rate cuts, the liquidity easing of the U.S. dollar will directly stimulate non-yielding assets. As a typical non-yielding asset, cryptocurrency is likely to usher in a new rising cycle. Whether Bitcoin can return to $120,000 will depend on the Fed's true attitude and the pace of interest rate cuts.

The key variables have become clear: who will ultimately take the position, whether interest rate cuts can truly be implemented, and how to grasp the timing. All of these will directly affect the subsequent market direction. Interested friends can continue to pay attention to the Fed's movements and make strategic adjustments in advance.