#美联储政策 The structure of US debt issuance has changed, and this signal is very concerning. $25.4 trillion of short-term zero-coupon bonds account for 69.4%, close to a historical high— the US government is playing a high-risk game by using debt that matures in a few months to fill long-term gaps.

What does this mean? Public debt interest expenditures begin to dance in sync with the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate. Once inflation rises, the Federal Reserve will be forced to restart the interest rate hike cycle, and interest costs will soar to unprecedented levels. This is not alarmism; it is mathematics on the books.

From a trading perspective, this has changed my assessment of certain traders' strategies. Accounts that are heavily invested in US Treasuries and using high leverage to go long on the dollar seem to be enjoying the liquidity bonus, but once the debt crisis triggers a policy reversal, the pullback will be severe. I have recently been adjusting my copy trading configuration, reducing the allocation to this style and instead focusing on experts who are sensitive to macro risks and have positioned themselves early for hedging.

Friends with a high risk appetite can continue to observe, but it is advisable to leave enough room for stop-loss. The debt cycle is such that the longer it drags on, the harder it is to settle – in practice, we have seen too many accounts lulled by liquidity, only to be ultimately反噬 by fundamentals.