#BTC行情分析 Golden Financial reported that Jocy, a founding partner of IOSG, stated on the X platform that 2025 will be the "worst year" for the crypto market, with OG investors experiencing three waves of selling from March 2024 to November 2025, during which long-term holders (LTH) will cumulatively sell approximately 1.4 million BTC (worth $12.117 billion):

First wave (end of 2023 - beginning of 2024): ETF approval, BTC rises from $25,000 to $73,000;
Second wave (end of 2024): Trump elected, BTC surges to 100,000 USD;
Third wave (2025): BTC stays above $100,000 for the long term. Unlike the single explosive distributions in 2013, 2017, and 2021, this time it is a multi-wave continuous distribution. The past year saw BTC stagnating at high points for a whole year, a situation that has never occurred before; 1.6 million BTC (approximately $14 billion) that had not moved for over 2 years decreased since the beginning of 2024.
But the other side of risk is opportunity, in investment logic:
Short term (3-6 months): oscillation between $87,000 and $95,000, institutions continue to accumulate.
Mid-term (first half of 2026): Dual drivers of policy and institutions, target $120,000 to $150,000;
Long-term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, watch the election results and policy continuity.