#美联储政策 When I saw BitMine increase its holdings by 1.38 million ETH this week, my first reaction was not excitement, but caution.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that institutions have a problem with Ethereum itself, the problem is that many retail investors see this kind of news and start to FOMO, thinking "large institutions are hoarding coins, I have to follow suit." But there's an easy pitfall here: the accumulation cycle of institutions often misaligns with the buying time of retail investors. What they plan over six months, retail investors might chase in at a high.

Carefully examine the logical chain of this news—The Federal Reserve stops quantitative tightening, expecting a rate cut in December, and the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade is implemented. These are indeed positive signals, but it is precisely because this information has been widely discussed that the market has already reacted. Institutions say, "Strengthening in the coming months," which sounds tempting, but how long is "the coming months"? From now until June next year? There will be significant fluctuations in this time window.

I have seen too many people chase after prices after similar news appears, only to end up being trapped. The key is to ask yourself: Is this price my cost price? How much retracement can I endure? Instead of just following the trend because large institutions are buying.

Institutions have the patience to wait, while retail investors cannot afford to. This is the difference.