#美联储政策 The debt dilemma under Fed policy is interesting to see with this set of data. $25.4 trillion T-Bills at a record high, approaching 70%—what does this indicate? The U.S. government is playing a game of "financing long-term debt with short-term debt," equivalent to repeatedly testing the edge of high-interest loans.

The most heart-wrenching part is this logical chain: interest expenses start to fluctuate in sync with the Fed's policy interest rate, which means that if inflation resurges, raising interest rates would be like adding fuel to the fire of debt. For traders, this is an important risk signal.

I have recently been observing some traders who benchmark against U.S. Treasuries and found that conservative players are starting to adjust their position allocations—reducing their unilateral bets on long-term dollar appreciation and shifting towards a more volatile but controllable portfolio. The aggressive players, on the other hand, are betting that the market is underpricing the risk of a recession.

In such times, following a trader should consider whether the trader's risk framework aligns with the current macro environment. With rising expectations of a debt crisis, market liquidity will show divergence; following the right person can lead to substantial profits, while following the wrong one is a living textbook example of failure. As the old saying goes—only through practice can we see who truly understands risk management and who is just talking big.