A kid just added me and asked, “Is Meme over?”

Obviously trying to find some confidence from me

I said Meme itself is not a market, but a distribution method. This distribution method is almost identical to all on-chain fair launches. How could it be over?

The current poor market sentiment is essentially due to the poor prices of SOL and BNB, especially the spiral decline of SOL.

There are whales, there are retail traders—that’s the game theory structure on the chain.

Whales won’t hold SOL; they choose to wait and see. Without tokens in hand, they can’t create good markets. Once the bottom is reached and stabilized, Meme will gradually come back.

I said that almost no market has a full-year trend: if you look back at the monthly K-lines of gold and silver, you'll find that the middle ten years were almost all bad markets.

Why do you expect Meme to have a full-year trend?

Every new participant encounters this question: overthinking, gambling too little.

They have experienced a complete speculative process from a retail perspective and achieved some results.

But when market sentiment is poor, the first thing to do is not to go back and model your speculative process, clarify the game between whales and retail players, the structure, and conditions.

Instead, they are influenced by so-called “researchers” with IQ 100 from Eastern and Western institutions, whose seemingly reasonable, compassionate, and worldly views are actually just more sophisticated emotional expressions wrapped in well-structured words.

They conclude that “the crypto world is dead,” “the next round will only have US stocks,” “only compliance remains, no other opportunities,” “all hype will die, only useful products will survive.”

These sound convincing at first glance but are actually unprovable conclusions.

In the commodities market, many precious metals have fewer than ten counterparties. No one talks about “stockpile mutual destruction,” “no real innovation,” or “no applications,” but fundamentally it’s the same crypto market. Participants are happy to look inward.

Venture capital is VC, retail is retail. VCs earn salaries and carry from management fees, retail are frontline risk-takers.

The grand narratives of researchers are mostly aimed at securing the next fund; their writings are probably not meant for you. Only a few are also degens, and most likely won’t write vague, empty words.

And you are the ones fighting in the trenches every day, bearing the ups and downs—just like a wall standing straight, workers know best, designers only understand the construction to a degree.

Don’t waste energy on internal conflicts. Review the few trades you won and analyze why you won, whether whales made money, what internal and external conditions contributed to the profit, and which of these are absent now.

Or respect your inner need for volatility, find similar markets, and focus your attention on betting well on the current trade.

Don’t let any old-timer, including me, preach to you in your most familiar risk zone.

We don’t know everything.