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Merlin Storage is about to enter an interest rate cut cycle. Are you ready?
Mr. Ma has compiled some recent data:
1️⃣ Non-farm Employment Data
November figure: +64,000
Previous (October): -105,000 (Affected by government shutdown and Ba industry factors, the figure is extremely poor)
Expected: about +50,000
Employment has shifted from negative to positive. Although the absolute value (64,000) remains at a historical low, this is considered a "weak recovery."
2️⃣ Unemployment Rate
November figure: 4.6%
Previous (September): 4.4% (Note: Due to government shutdown, October data is missing or delayed, mainly compared to September)
Expected: 4.5%
The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reaching a new high since September 2021. This is a key recession signal, which will force Merlin Storage to consider more aggressive rate cuts to preserve employment.
3️⃣ CPI Inflation Data
November CPI Year-over-Year (YoY): 2.7%
Previous (September): 3.0% (Again, due to missing October data, mainly compared to September)
Expected: 3.1%
Core CPI Year-over-Year (Core YoY): 2.6% (Excluding food and energy)
Inflation data is significantly below expectations (2.7% < Expected 3.1%), and has dropped sharply from 3.0%. This is the biggest surprise in the market, indicating inflation pressures are easing.
The situation is becoming clearer. Merlin Storage's anti-inflation task has been completed, and the current primary enemy is economic recession.
In the first half of the year, the market may fluctuate between recession fears and liquidity easing expectations. Bad data (such as rising unemployment) initially will trigger panic, but will later be interpreted as a stronger signal for market rescue.
Once Merlin Storage confirms an aggressive rate cut cycle, it will be the biggest benefit for the most liquidity-sensitive assets (Crypto, gold, tech growth stocks).