#美国经济数据 The Federal Reserve meeting is coming early Thursday, and this one is quite interesting. The 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is almost a done deal, but the key isn’t whether they cut or not, but how Powell will speak about it.

Among the 12 FOMC voting members, 5 oppose further easing, a level of disagreement not seen since 2019. The market is currently betting on the best-case scenario of "economic resilience + rate cuts," but if the Fed signals excessive caution, it could be interpreted as an increased risk of recession, which is a very sensitive logic.

Recently, several short-term trading experts I follow are adjusting their positions to respond to this variable. Some are reducing their weights, while others are switching directly to defensive assets. This is a typical "information uncertainty premium" — no one knows how the hawk-dove debate will ultimately be settled.

My personal view is that instead of guessing Powell’s tone, it’s better to watch the performance of long-term US Treasuries after the meeting. If they sell off, it indicates the market is pricing in recession expectations, and at that point, we should be alert to the resilience of the "Santa Claus rally." I recommend paying close attention to the logic of position adjustments by top traders in the coming days; sometimes, their portfolio moves are more honest than economists’ words.

Before Thursday, be prepared for both scenarios.