#美联储货币政策 The Federal Reserve is about to make its announcement this week, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. However, the focus of this meeting is not actually on the rate cut itself — but on how deep the hawkish-dovish split really is. Five voting members oppose or doubt further easing, something that hasn't happened in nearly five years. What does this mean? It suggests that the market's pricing of the "best-case scenario" may be overly optimistic.

I’ve observed the recent trading logic of several well-followed traders; they are all adjusting their position structures. The key point here is: if the Fed signals excessive dovishness, it may seem to be good news for stocks, but in reality, it could trigger a long-term U.S. Treasury sell-off — ending the Santa Claus rally. So now, the question isn't "Will there be a rate cut?" but rather "What will Powell say?"

Recommended follow-up strategy for this week: First, reduce the proportion of aggressive traders in your follow list and shift toward those with risk control discipline and good stop-loss practices; second, diversify positions across different styles — keep small positions with aggressive traders to catch rebounds, but allocate main positions to experts who can handle uncertainties. Data delays caused by the government shutdown are inherently risky, and when employment and inflation data are released later in December, another wave of volatility may follow. Experience shows that when uncertainty is high, the real test is risk management, not courage.